A century after Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin plotted revolution from Zurich, Russia's most famous ex-prisoner, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, harbours similar ambitions from self-chosen exile in the Swiss city.
Almost a year into his freedom, Khodorkovsky insists the tide is turning against president Vladimir Putin as the Russian economy heads into recession. Government revenue has been squeezed and the rouble has tumbled to record lows following a collapse in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the West over the Ukraine conflict.
“Putin has far less room to manoeuvre financially, which creates difficulties for him and, as a result, the cost of any mistakes he may make could be critical,” Khodorkovsky (51) said.
“For Putin, even $120 a barrel for oil is a problem because, with his system of rule, he can’t survive without the revenue from raw materials growing every year.”
Galvanising opposition
Once Russia’s richest man with a fortune of $15 billion at the time of his imprisonment in 2003, the former Yukos Oil tycoon is seeking to galvanise the faltering opposition to Putin’s 15-year-rule. Khodorkovsky says he’s undeterred by the president’s ratings of more than 80 per cent after months of standoff with the US and EU.
The businessman, who spends his time crisscrossing Europe, maintaining offices in London and Prague as well as Zurich, says he sleeps just six hours a night because he's so busy with his new political role.
Evaporating euphoria
Khodorkovsky says the euphoria provoked by Putin’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in March will evaporate in the coming five years as the population feels the impact of the economic slowdown.
There’s at least a 50 per cent chance that Putin won’t last the next decade, according to the former tycoon, who pins his hope on a coup by the Russian leader’s inner circle.
“I believe that the problem for Putin will come from within his own entourage,” he said. “For my country, it would be better if things happened this way than through clashes on the streets, as a palace coup would spill less blood.”
In a scenario that Khodorkovsky acknowledges isn't more than an outside possibility, this could open the chance for him to come back to Russia to head a transitional government that would steer the country for two or three years before stepping down after a free and democratic vote. –(Bloomberg)