Forty years ago this week, British voters went to the polls in the country's first referendum on European Union membership.
By a majority of two to one, voters supported the Labour government's campaign to stay in what was then the European Economic Community.
Like prime minister David Cameron’s Conservative Party four decades later, the Labour Party had committed to holding such a referendum in its election manifesto of 1974 following Britain’s decision to join the EEC the previous year.
Prime minister Howard Wilson hailed the outcome as a "historic decision", with home secretary Roy Jenkins – later president of the European Commission – predicting the result would commit Britain to playing "an active, constructive and enthusiastic role" in Europe.
But far from settling the “Europe” question, 40 years later Britain’s uneasy relationship within Europe remains unresolved.
Cameron’s proposed referendum aims to once again resolve British ambivalence towards Brussels or at least put an end to the divisions that have dogged the Conservatives for decades.
Claims that the Conservatives’ decision to hold a referendum is driven more by internal party politics than real concerns at a national level about EU membership appear to have been borne out by research this week that shows British support for EU membership is rising.
The poll, by Washington- based think tank Pew Research Centre, found 55 per cent of British respondents would vote to remain in the EU, while 36 per cent would vote against. The level of support compares with 50 per cent in 2014 and 46 per cent in 2013, suggesting a steady rise in British support for EU membership since Cameron announced his referendum plans in his “Bloomberg” speech of January 2013.
Scottish vast majority
Despite arguing that public support for the EU is “wafer thin”, this week Cameron was given another reminder of the level of support for the EU that exists in another sector of the British electorate.
In a speech to the European Policy Centre in Brussels, Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon said the vast majority of Scottish people want to stay in the EU.
“The fundamental vision of the European Union, of independent nations working together for a common good, appeals to us,” she said.
Fresh from a sweeping electoral victory that saw her party scoop 56 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats, Sturgeon warned a “Brexit” could trigger a second Scottish independence referendum.
Arguing that no member of the UK “multinational state” should be forced out of the EU against its will, the Scottish National Party (SNP) leader called on the British government to include a “double majority” provision in the forthcoming referendum legislation, which would ensure the UK could exit the union only if all four constituent parts were in favour.
While the SNP's suggestion is unlikely to fly – as critics have pointed out, Scotland joined the EU as part of the UK and remains a part of that sovereign state – the threat of a second Scottish referendum will unnerve the British government, which is facing not only a referendum on Europe in the next few years but also serious internal constitutional challenges prompted in part by thriving Scottish secessionism.
Yes
campaign plank Despite differing views from Brussels during last year’s Scottish independence campaign as to whether Scotland would have to reapply for EU membership in the event of s
ecession, an independent Scotland’s continued membership of the EU was a key plank of the Yes campaign, offering Scottish voters the promise of remaining part of a larger multinational community should they choose the path of independence.
The ramifications of a British exit from the EU also extend to Northern Ireland. In an apparent shift from its traditional Euroscepticism in the Republic, Sinn Féin argued at its ardfheis in April that a separate plebiscite should be held in Northern Ireland on EU membership, arguing that the Government should also play a role in ensuring Northern Ireland had a say in any potential exit from the bloc.
Britain’s pledge, in other words, to hold a referendum on EU membership may have profound implications for its internal politics and the future cohesion of the UK.
As Cameron prepares to push the British case for reform at the EU summit later this month he would do well to ensure he secures a reform package that will be palatable to all sectors of the electorate and not just the Conservative Party. If not, the unintended consequences of a British exit could be profound.