European Union leaders gather in Brussels on Thursday for a two-day summit that will be dominated by discussions on Russia and the bloc's future trade policy with Britain as the EU tries to move forward with its agenda.
While Theresa May will attend her first EU summit as prime minister, no substantive discussion of Britain's withdrawal from the bloc is expected, though the new Conservative Party leader will update her counterparts on her decision to activate article 50 by March, a move that will activate Britain's exit process.
Amid mounting public concern about the humanitarian situation in northern Syria where rebel-held areas of Aleppo are being bombed by Russian and Syrian warplanes, EU leaders will debate the bloc’s relationship with Russia over dinner on Thursday night.
Senior EU officials played down any expectations of a decision on sanctions which are up for renewal at the end of the year, while written conclusions on Russia will not be issued after the meeting. Instead, leaders will take stock on the bloc’s relationship with Moscow amid divisions between member states on how far the EU should engage with its eastern partner.
War crimes
The debate, which Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi has been requesting for months, will take place three days after EU foreign ministers issued their strongest condemnation yet of Russia's actions in Syria, accusing Russia of possible war crimes.
“Since the beginning of the offensive by the regime and its allies, notably Russia, the intensity and scale of the aerial bombardment of eastern Aleppo is clearly disproportionate,” foreign ministers said in a lengthy statement on Monday, criticising Moscow for “the deliberate targeting of hospitals, medical personnel, schools and essential infrastructure.”
But the EU is divided on the issue of engagement with Russia. Greece, Cyprus, Hungary and Italy are among those countries who have previously called for EU sanctions on Moscow to be reassessed, as their economies are hurting from the effect of Russia’s countersanctions on the EU.
On the other hand, France and Britain have been leading calls for the EU to use all its available tools against Russia as the offensive in Aleppo continues. “We are facing a catastrophic and unacceptable situation in Aleppo,” said one senior diplomat, “sanctions should be on the table, at least for discussion.”
Some diplomats expressed hope that Mr Renzi may have been persuaded to take a tougher stance against Moscow following his meetings this week with US president Barack Obama in the White House.
‘Selective engagement’
Italy's commissioner Federica Mogherini, who is the EU's high representative for foreign policy, proposed a new policy of "selective engagement" with Russia earlier this year, arguing that Europe needed to engage with its neighbour and strategically consider its relationship in parallel to the sanctions introduced in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea.
While Syria is likely to inform Thursday’s discussion on Russia, leaders are expected to do little more than distil Monday’s declaration from foreign ministers which denounced Russia’s actions in Aleppo. A substantive debate on the current Iraqi government offensive on Mosul is not on the agenda.
Much of Thursday evening's discussion on Russia is expected to be steered by German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president François Hollande who will debrief ministers on their meeting with Russian president Vladamir Putin and Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko on Wednesday evening.
Trade deal
EU leaders are also scheduled to discuss the EU’s future trade policy on Friday morning, including the EU-Canada trade deal which has threatened to be derailed following the rejection of the deal by the Belgian regional parliament of Wallonia last Friday.
Among the issues to be discussed are the trade defence instruments at the disposal of the EU to protect the bloc's industries in the face of global competition, including from China. In his letter to EU leaders ahead of the summit, EU Council president Donald Tusk said that, while trade is a "powerful engine for jobs, growth and better living standards," the benefits of trade were being questioned.
“I am convinced that together we can deliver a trade policy that is fit for today’s concerns and tomorrow’s challenges. But ultimately it hinges on our ability to adequately protect ourselves, and our citizens, when unfair practices arise.”
