Turkey's downing of a Russian fighter jet on Tuesday morning was the result of a slow though steady rise in tensions building since Moscow's deployment of jets to the Syria conflict two months ago.
On October 3rd and 4th, Russian war planes were tracked in Turkish airspace in Hatay province, close to where Tuesday’s incident unfolded. On those occasions the jets, according to Turkish officials, spent over five minutes in violation of Turkey’s airspace.
As recently as last Thursday, Turkey officially warned Russia about its Syria operations by summoning both Russia's ambassador Andrey Karlov and a military attaché to the foreign ministry in Ankara to air its grievances.
It believes Russia’s airstrikes are putting Turkmen communities in Syria at risk, as well as threatening to fuel a new surge of Syrian refugees into Turkey.
Then in a surprise to many, the final straw for Turkey came on Tuesday morning with an alleged incursion to Turkish airspace, followed by the shooting down of the Russian aircraft by Turkish F-16 jets.
“We warned them to avoid entering Turkish airspace before they did, and we warned them many times. Our findings show clearly that Turkish airspace was violated multiple times. And they violated it knowingly,” Reuters quoted a senior Turkish official as saying.
Turkey claims the jet in question violated Turkish airspace and was warned 10 times in a five-minute period before being shot down by jets. Rebel Turkmen fighters and other opposition groups were present in the immediate area of where the Russian plane crashed on Tuesday.
The fate of the pilots of the Russian craft is not yet certain.
Russia had initially said it believed the plane, a Sukhoi Su-14 fighter jet, was shot down by forces on the ground. Later it accused Turkey of the action.
Russian jets have been providing crucial air cover to Syrian government forces on the ground battling rebels in the mountains of Latakia province, an important barrier dividing rebel groups from the predominantly Alawite and loyalist-inhabited coast.
Brutal crackdown
Since early on in Syria’s 2011 revolution, Turkey has called for President Bashar al-Assad to step down following his regime’s brutal crackdown on what was a peaceful protest movement.
Part of Turkey’s attempts to weaken the rule of Assad saw Ankara regularly turn a blind eye to the movement of weapons and rebel fighters over its border with Syria until the rise to prominence of the so-called Islamic State (Isis) last year. Turkey continues to insist Assad must leave his post as part of a solution to ending the war.
Russia, meanwhile, has backed Assad's rule by blocking UN Security Council resolutions as well as providing financing and weapons to the embattled regime. Russia's strategic interest in propping up Assad lies partly in its desire to remain relevant to events in the Middle East theatre through maintaining its naval base in the coastal Syrian city of Tartous.
Russian warplanes are in Syria ostensibly to target Isis positions since entering the air war on the side of the Damascus government on September 21st last.
Yet, to the concern of activists, opposition groups and some in the West, Russian air operations have instead overwhelmingly concentrated on rebel groups, some of whom are being backed by Turkey. Adding to the chorus of criticism is the fact that Tuesday morning’s incident happened almost 200km from the nearest Isis-controlled districts.
Russian backlash
The downing of the jet is especially untimely for both sides. The Turkish and Russian foreign ministers were due to meet for talks about energy supplies in Istanbul on Wednesday.
That meeting has been cancelled, while the status of a high-level “co-operation council” meeting on December 15th is now in question.
Ankara now faces a major dilemma. Largely devoid of energy resources of its own, Turkey is dependent on foreign supplies of oil and gas to heat homes and run industries this winter.
Last year, Turkey imported 27.33 billion cubic metres of natural gas - almost 60 per cent of the total amount - from Russia at a reduced price. What’s more, Russian holidaymakers make up a large proportion of Turkey’s international tourist trade.
For Moscow, Turkey remains an important market for gas and it has invested much time and energy in securing Turkey as a transit country through which to transport its natural gas to southern Europe.