When German police found three letters beside the shattered Borussia Dortmund (BVB) team bus 10 days ago, the unknown author claimed an Islamist motive and praised “Allah the merciful”.
Now investigators believe the three-fold explosion, which injured two but was intended to kill, was not motivated by God, but mammon.
Just before 6am on Friday morning, special branch police in southern Germany apprehended a suspect on his way to work in the southwestern town of Tübingen.
After a week of close observation, the 28 year-old man with dual German and Russian citizenship was pulled off the road and detained facing three charges: attempted murder, causing an explosion and aggravated criminal assault.
The man, identified only as Sergej W, was not an Islamist, but a stock market gambler, investigators say, who bought 15,000 options in BVB shares.
“The suspect bought three different derivatives on shares of BVB, betting on a falling share price,” said Ms Frauke Köhler, spokeswoman for the federal prosecutor. “The majority were bought on April 11, the day of the attack.”
After placing his stock bet, investigators say the man set about ensuring the stock would plunge. While investigators have declined to speculate on the prospective windfall, financial analysts suggest the man could have earned almost €4 million.
“A massive fall in the share price of Borussia Dortmund would have brought a return many times the financial commitment,” said Germany’s federal prosecutor in a statement. “A considerable fall in stock price would have been likely if, as a result of the attack, players were seriously injured or even killed.”
In March, the suspect booked a room in the L’Arrivée hotel used by BVB ahead of matches. He made two separate bookings, from April 9th to 13th and again from April 16th to 20th – two possible dates for BVB’s Champions League quarter final against AS Monaco.
When the match was set for April 11th, he checked in two days earlier, refusing the original room offered and insisting on one with a view of the Wittbräucker Straße where the explosion would take place.
Six days before checking in, he took out a consumer loan, investigators say; money he would later use to buy stock options.
In the hours before the bomb attack, while the BVB side trained for their quarter final, police tracked a stock transaction to a computer with the hotel’s IP address.
In total, the man spent a reported €78,000 on 15,000 so-called put options. The further the BVB stock fell – due, for instance, to mass casualties in a bus explosion – the greater the profit for the options holder.
Suspicions
Police suspect the man watched the bus pull out of the hotel car park and, at 7.16pm, detonated the explosive charges by remote control.
Suspecting the perpetrator was nearby at the time of the attack, investigators say they had already examined the identity of all hotel guests. Staff told police how, when other hotel guests rushed out after the explosion, the German-Russian man entered the restaurant and ordered a steak.
Investigators’ suspicions were heightened after a call from money laundering officials at the Comdirect bank, noting the man had made the suspicious derivatives transaction shortly before the attack.
After observing the man for a week, police intercepted him on Friday morning after he left his home in the town of Rottenburg for Tübigen, where he works as an electro-technician.
Separate police teams in full body armour and wielding battering rams and submachine guns, burst into his home - and three other buildings - to secure evidence.
The explosions, a minute after the bus left the hotel, injured two men: Spanish defender Marc Bartra and a police outrider. The three bombs, containing large amounts of shrapnel, were concealed in a bush alongside the route and appear to have been detonated remotely.
The news of the explosion’s stock market motive has rocked German professional football. It has been hit in the past by match-fixing cases involving players and referees but this case, if confirmed, brings manipulation to a new level. BVB lost their Champions League match against AS Monaco in a rescheduled match 24 hours after the blast.
‘Revolting’
“This is a good day for football,” said Ralf Jäger, interior minister in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia.
Federal interior minister Thomas de Maizière said the motive, if proven, would be “particularly revolting”.
The suspect was brought before a remand judge this afternoon, as the investigation into the explosive device continues.
Police have described the devices as “very professional” but say the main charge was placed too high and that most of its explosive power – with a 100m radius – missed the bus. One metal shard from one of the bombs buried itself into one of the bus headrests.
“It was only luck that nothing worse happened,” said Frauke Köhler, a spokeswoman for the federal prosecutor.
Tests into the explosive device and material used are still ongoing but prosecutors say there are no indications of any other suspects involved in the blast.
From the start, police were doubtful of the Islamist motive alluded to in three copies of a letter found near the scene of the explosion.
A day after the explosions, German police raided two apartments and took into custody an Iraqi national with Islamic State links who came to Germany last year. They arrested him a day later, but for heading an Islamic State commando group and not for links to the Dortmund blast.