Brexit shakes EU hopefuls and strengthens Russia’s hand

From Ukraine to Albania, countries on the fringes of the European Union are assessing how Brexit will affect their long and often painful efforts to join it. Through the fall of communism in central Europe, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the wars across crumbling Yugoslavia, EU accession has served as a precious shared goal and catalyst for peace and progress.

Whether in the former Soviet Baltic states or the Black Sea nations of Romania and Bulgaria, the promise of EU membership prompted leaders to undertake tough reforms to tackle corruption, overhaul economies and improve human rights. Across former Yugoslavia, the prospect of a future together inside the EU has been a major driver for reconciliation between people who were at war a generation ago.

Croatia became the EU's 28th member in 2013, and the states next in line – Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia and Albania – knew even before Brexit that the pace of enlargement had dramatically slowed.

Now pro-EU parties in the Balkans and beyond fear not only that expansion will be delayed, but that doubts over the union’s long-term viability will call into question the membership drive that has shaped two decades of policy.

On a visit to London in February, Serbian prime minister Aleksandar Vucic said the EU had already "lost its magic power" among Balkan states. "Yes, we all want to join, but it is no longer the big dream it was in the past," he said.

The EU has pressed Serbia's and Kosovo's leaders to pursue a tentative rapprochement that is far from universally popular among their people, and Mr Vucic has remodelled himself from an ultra-nationalist firebrand into a pro-EU conservative. He called Brexit "the biggest political earthquake since the fall of the Berlin Wall", but insisted Serbia would "continue the European path, to fight for a better standard and attract investors".

As the results of Brexit became clear, Mr Vucic said: “There are, since this morning, those who would call a referendum in Serbia and change the policy.” He predicted most Serbs, given the chance, would vote against EU accession. “We’re not going to change our policy,” he insisted.

Many analysts said Brexit would strengthen Russia’s hand across Europe, particularly among states that are struggling with pro-EU reforms and may now question the wisdom of banking on an increasingly shaky union to the detriment of ties with Moscow.

Amid strained relations with the EU, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week sought to restore links with the Kremlin that broke last November, when Turkey downed a Russian warplane over the Turkish-Syrian border.

"This might be a Turkish reaction to Brexit and the assumption that the EU, and the EU accession anchor, will now weaken and that Turkey needs to make up with its neighbours," said Timothy Ash, a head of regional strategy at Nomura Bank.

Ukraine could be one of the biggest international losers of Brexit if Russia is emboldened and the EU becomes more insular and shies away from expansion.

"We have lost a constructive voice at the EU table in terms of sanctions against Russia, support against [Russian] aggression and political and financial support," said reformist Ukrainian deputy Svitlana Zalishchuk.

“European integration has been the most successful instrument for helping transition countries to succeed. Brexit sends a message that this instrument is not working any more . . . It could have helped the whole region develop, but now it’s been put on pause.”