A deal with the United Kingdom is still possible, chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier told journalists as he arrived for a dawn meeting with delegates from the 27 national governments to urge the capitals to keep their unity as his team makes one final push.
But sources from both sides agree on two things. First, that enough progress was kindled over the weekend to persuade the leaders on both sides to extend the talks. And second, that while positive, this is by no means a guarantee that a deal can be reached, and that the talks could still fall flat.
As a senior diplomat who attended Barnier’s closed-door dawn briefing put it: “The patient is still alive.”
The EU still believes London must become more open to compromise if a deal to be found, and there are questions over how much attention prime minister Boris Johnson is really paying to the talks.
Barnier said it was the “responsibility” of both sides to give the talks “every chance”.
“We are going to give every chance to this agreement . . . which is still possible,” he told journalists who gathered in the dim Brussels morning to ambush him as he arrived at EU headquarters. “Two conditions aren’t met yet. Free and fair competition . . . and an agreement which guarantees reciprocal access to markets and waters. And it’s on these points that we haven’t found the right balance with the British. So, we keep working.”
Much of the deal is done, with the most contentious issues left for the end.
Britain’s catch
On fish, the sides remain divided. Britain wants to revoke the access of EU boats to its waters and dole out permits for a limited catch each year. The EU is pushing back, with the leverage that much of Britain’s catch is sold to the bloc.
The “level playing field” discussion has shifted from an initial EU ambition that Britain would stay in line with its standards, to a debate about how to manage divergence. The key questions are how to measure and prove that differing rules are causing a market distortion, what authority could judge this, and what penalties should be available as a recourse.
Timing, as well as content, is now a battle of wills.
There are now jaded comments on both sides about the talks running up against New Year’s Eve, but the reality is that new arrangements cannot take hold with the stroke of a pen.
There are ratification and implementation requirements on both sides, but particularly for the EU.
Deadline pressure
Barnier is under intense pressure from member states and the European Parliament to conclude talks in time for them to be able to read any deal to ensure they are happy with it, before rushing it into force.
MEPs have pencilled in a sitting of the European Parliament on December 28th to hold a vote, but the deal would have to be translated and scrutinised before that. If they aren’t given enough time – read, if there isn’t a deal this week – some are threatening to refuse to vote on the agreement.
The EU side has been warning that running out of time for ratification may mean a painful period of no-deal terms in January until a deal is confirmed. This was acknowledged by Barnier in a tweet. “The next few days are important,” he wrote “if a . . . deal is to be in place on 1 January 2021.”
On the British side, there is speculation that Johnson has the opposite impulse: to bring talks as close to December 31st as possible, so that any deal comes at a time when the public are paying less attention to any compromises, and MPs are given as little time as possible to figure them out.