With less than a year to the federal election, the steering committee of Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) meets on Monday in a desperate bid to find a way to choose a new leader who is pandemic-proof.
After 18 years, chancellor Angela Merkel stood down as party leader in 2018 and handed the reigns to her chosen successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Last February, after a series of regional election disasters and policy missteps, Kramp-Karrenbauer announced her resignation.
A month later Germany entered lockdown, forcing the party to cancel an April leadership party conference in Berlin. Now that the second wave of Covid-19 has hit, with daily infection rates above 11,000, the CDU’s December 4th gathering in Stuttgart is looking like a a non-starter. The Esslingen neighbourhood of Stuttgart, where the event is to be held, is already a high-risk area with more than 50 cases per 100,000 this week.
Struggle
“Of course we will have in view the dynamic developments with the corona situation and take it into account in our plans,” said Kramp-Karrenbauer on Friday ahead of Monday’s “important” meeting where she will make the case for an expedited decision.
With the fascination of a slow-motion car crash, the CDU’s eight-month struggle to find a second leader in two years bodes ill for its election chances next year. Some in Berlin joke that the drama over how to choose the next leader is infinitely more interesting than the three candidates on offer.
The safe money is on Armin Laschet, a continuity candidate with a steady – if not inspiring – record as state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, home to one in five Germans.
The disruption candidate is Friedrich Merz, a millionaire businessman and former CDU general secretary who wants a more centre-right liberal approach. Many in the party suspect he is running to settle an old score with Merkel, a one-time ally who shafted her ambitious ally.
A third candidate is a CDU foreign affairs expert Norbert Röttgen, seen as an also-ran by many yet with dark horse potential.
Polls of the German population – not CDU delegates – suggest Merz has a lead of just two points over Laschet but, at 19 and 17 per cent support respectively, neither is an obvious winner.
Six weeks before the scheduled party conference, and ahead of Monday’s make-or-break meeting, CDU officials are facing into a long weekend discussing alternative arrangements.
Pandemic legislation
The simplest solution would be to follow political parties elsewhere, and shift the conference online. But until now choosing a new political leader – according to German law, and some party statues – has to take place in person. Even changing that rule would itself require an in-person vote.
To break that deadlock, Germany’s new pandemic legislation package has allowed for virtual political party conferences. Senior CDU officials have discussed a hybrid solution: rather than 1,001 delegates meeting in one place, all regional branches may hold party conferences in parallel, with voting results shared for a final decision. On Friday the CDU’s youth wing suggested shifting entirely to postal votes, with candidates presenting themselves to members online.
Any new leader – if they can be elected in December – faces an unenviable challenge of planning an election in nine months. Leading Germany’s most popular party, which is steady on 35 per cent in polls, will be far from an easy task given the popular Merkel is still in office.
“There’s a feeling of resignation in the CDU,” said one senior party official, “with doubts over the candidates and frustration – and a dash of helplessness – over how best to cope with this situation.”
