Berlin voters are poised to hand the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) the keys to its 10th state parliament tomorrow, amid migration disquiet and frustration with mainstream political parties. Two weeks ago, the AfD overtook Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU); now opinion polls give the radical anti-immigrant party about 13 per cent support in the German capital – similar to support in nationwide polls.
When 2.5 million Berliners elect a new state parliament and local councils on Sunday, it will be another test, albeit limited, of the political mood exactly a year before Germany’s federal election. The AfD’s rise to double-digit support in Berlin, traditionally a left-wing city, has spooked the outgoing grand coalition headed by the Social Democrat (SPD) mayor, Michael Müller. Müller, effectively state premier of the city-state government, warned voters that a looming double-digit result for the AfD in Berlin was not to be taken lightly.
“It will be seen around the world as a sign for the revival of the far-right and Nazis in Germany,” he wrote on his Facebook page. “Berlin isn’t just any city. It is the city that has developed from the capital of Hitler and Nazi Germany to beacon for freedom, tolerance, diversity and social solidarity.”
The long shadow of the AfD in the Berlin campaign is telling, considering the many problems facing the structurally weak German capital.
With negligible industry, the city has pinned its economic hopes on tourism and tech, but the jobless rate is still over 10 per cent – four points above the national average – while many with jobs are trapped in the low-wage sector and one in five Berliners is classified as poor. The city has pared back services in the face of a €60 billion debt mountain – the costly legacy of political corruption and gross mismanagement by previous SPD-CDU coalitions.
Laughing stock
Berlin is also a national laughing stock for its cursed international airport – four years late, still not open and billions over budget. Then there is the worrying 52 per cent spike in rents in the last five years, thanks to a growing population, a housing shortage and a property boom driven by low interest rates.
With Berlin no longer the big easy it once was, vulnerable voters seeking a scapegoat have, thanks to the AfD, found it in the refugees. In normal times, the rule of thumb is that German state elections are won or lost on local issues like childcare or housing. These are not normal times, though, and migration touches all levels of Germany’s political system.
Merkel’s open-door policy at federal level brought one million asylum seekers last year and 300,000 so far in 2016. Responsibility for housing, financing and integrating the new arrivals is the job of Germany’s federal states, though – and Berlin’s city state government has struggled with the challenge.
Just how deeply the migration crisis has saturated all levels of German politics was clear on a sunny Wednesday evening, when Merkel made her only campaign appearance in leafy Lichterfelde, a CDU stronghold, and was booed as defended her migration strategy.
As about 30 people chanted “Merkel Muß Weg!” (Merkel must go!), she argued: “We need solutions for all of those who have come to us and social cohesion is vital here, and that is the creed of the political centre, the CDU.”
The AfD’s rise, however, pulling in support from all political quarters, has disrupted Berlin’s political balance and Sunday’s poll could end in a political premiere: a three-way coalition government in the city between the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party.
Such an alliance, the product of local horse-trading, would have only limited meaning for federal politics. Yet a three-way centre-left alliance would send an interesting signal for the 2016 general election and voters anxious, after three terms, to end the Merkel era.
Days after police broke up an Islamic State sleeper cell in northern Germany, police in the eastern city of Bautzen have struggled this week to contain nightly clashes between asylum seekers and neo-Nazis. In the headlines, and in voters’ minds, migration fears are mixing with fears of Islamist violence.
Even in Berlin, famed for its long nights and broad-minded locals, fear and frustration have given the AfD an opening, finishing its campaign just four points behind the CDU.
