The atmosphere surrounding the annual closed-door meeting of China's Communist Party leadership at Beidaihe seems tentative this year. It's not clear whether the Beidaihe gathering will take place at all, with different signals appearing on state media and contrasting messages from the leadership.
People are curious. The outcome is rarely revealed to the public, but enough information comes out in dribs and drabs to give an idea of the general direction the Politburo is taking.
Beidaihe model
Some believe the Beidaihe model has run its course, that this year’s event may only have a partial representation and that president Xi Jinping, who is also general secretary of the Communist Party, may not show up at all.
Beidaihe's mild weather, its coastline and the fact it is just 300km from Beijing has made it a popular spot for officials since the late 19th century, when warlords and foreign diplomats alike came to the resort town. "The sand of Beidaihe seashore is quite good quality, the beach is flat, and sharks are rare guests," historian Zhu Guixin told the Southern Weekly.
So is Beidaihe, where senior leaders have come to swim, relax and discuss policy matters annually since the early 1950s, on or off? "It is not happening. I think the source is very reliable," said Wang Zhanyang, director of the political department at the Central Institute of Socialism, also known as the Party School.
Zhang Lifan, a Beijing-based political commentator, believes turmoil in the economy and the stock market might be used by Mr Xi's opponents to challenge his authority, so it's not clear whether a meeting will take place. "If they don't have meeting this year, it is a precaution," said Mr Zhang.
Out of control
Meetings of the leadership are often dangerous times for the political elite, as negative trends can escalate quickly. “The danger of having a meeting is that the situation might suddenly get out of control,” he said. “Especially when the old guard wants to say something, you can’t stop them.
“The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20), the economy and personnel changes were supposed to be discussed during Beidaihe, but now we don’t know if it is happening.”
There have been sightings of vice-president Li Yuanchao at nearby Qinhuangdao, site of warm-up meetings before Beidaihe, and his colleague on the Politburo Standing Committee Liu Yunshan, who met dozens of researchers and academics on Mr Xi's behalf, according to state news agency Xinhua.
A key reason why commentators feel the event might not take place this year is that much of the order-of-business has already been carried out, notably a purge of senior officials on corruption charges.
Former security czar Zhou Yongkang is serving a life sentence, while other senior figures such as former Central Military Commission vice chair Guo Boxiong, former Communist Party secretary of Hebei, Zhou Benshun, and the vice-president of the Supreme People's Court, Xi Xiaoming, are all out of the picture. Ling Jihua, a former top aide to ex-president Hu Jintao, is facing trial, though there are reports his US-based brother, Ling Wancheng, has damaging evidence against senior leaders, which could cause major headaches for the leadership.
Stealing state secrets
China
wants him extradited on charges of stealing state secrets, but
Washington
wants evidence to support the allegations. Should compromising information from Mr Ling leak during Beidaihe, it would be like a “nuclear bomb” at the gathering, said Mr Zhang.
If it does take place, the economy is likely to feature high on the agenda and outlining the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) will be among the priorities, as slowing economic growth could have a destablising effect. The government’s forecast is for growth of 7 per cent this year, the weakest in 25 years.
Chi Fulin, president of the China Institute of Reform and Development, told China Daily he expected the Beidaihe meeting to make decisions on the plan that will "meet the demands of China's development, alleviate the short-term downward pressure and have a great impact in the middle and long term". There is a longer-term goal here too. The Communist Party has set a target of building a moderately well-off society before the 100th birthday of the Communist Party in 2021.
The central committee of the Politburo met on July 30th and pledged to step up policies to ease economic pressure, 10 days after a meeting about the five-year plan.
A draft plan will be discussed by a leadership plenum in October, then approved at the NPC in March. “The central government is good at political struggles, but the economy is their shortcoming. People care about their wallets the most. This stock turmoil has affected hundreds of thousands of middle class people and it is very dangerous to social stability,” said Mr Zhang.
“They caused the situation today by themselves. They created a bull market and then tried to save it when turmoil happened. At the 18th NPC [in 2012], they said let the market be the deciding factor in resource allocation. But it is still the government who decides the resource allocation.”
If the meeting does not go ahead, there are historical precedents. Beidaihe was suspended during the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) but it resumed after the end of Mao’s rule.