Following the crowd can be a desperately costly habit at Cheltenham, but it's hard to escape the conclusion that War Of Attrition today might just turn into one of those famous all-out Irish banker festival gambles.
It's human nature, of course, to forget all those supposed good things that couldn't get over the last or out of their own way over the years. However, there seems to be a tide of genuine optimism surrounding this horse that might be justified in the Irish Independent Arkle Trophy.
War Of Attrition, who races in the colours of the Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary, and who came so close in last year's festival opener, has been on the lips of plenty of shrewd judges all season, and a record of two out of two over fences has hardly been a reason for any change of mind.
But it's the undisguised confidence of his connections that really has been the eye-catching factor in recent weeks. Conor O'Dwyer is so convinced of this fledgling talent for him to mention War Of Attrition's name in comparison with the Gold Cup hero Imperial Call. Mouse Morris, a shrewd Cheltenham operator over the years, hasn't been whispering in his jockey's ear to tone it down a bit either.
It's hard to ignore that kind of home reputation, and while betting blindly on reputation is iffy, there is the feeling this is not an exceptional Arkle field all told.
Drying ground is the last thing Noel Meade wants for the enigmatic Watson Lake, who can appear brilliant when left on his own but is not likely to be granted that privilege today.
River City looks best of the home horses and there are plenty of "ifs" surrounding the likes of Ned Kelly and Ulaan Baatar.
Irish-trained horses have won five of the last six renewals of the opening Letheby and Christopher Supreme Novices Hurdle, but this time there doesn't appear to be a stand-out favourite like Brave Inca or Like-A-Butterfly.
What there is, however, is an ante-post market leader in Justified, who could be worth taking on now that the ground appears to be drying out significantly.
A Grade Two victory at Punchestown in late January propelled Dusty Sheehy's horse to the top of the betting, but that was on a testing surface and behind him was a horse who will much prefer what is on offer now.
Akshar was almost 28 lengths behind Justified that day, but his aversion to the surface was illustrated by a dramatic drift in the betting and he remains a horse that Dermot Weld has considerable faith in. Akshar is a battle-hardened performer from the flat.
The same cannot be said about Publican, who was ultimately impressive at Naas last time out but whose jumping did on occasion look slightly slow. Nevertheless, he and a back-to-form Wild Passion would look to present better alternatives to Akshar than any of the home team, which is headed by the prolific Marcel.
It will be interesting to see how the first two new races of the four-day festival unfold, but if experience counts for anything then Spot Thedifference will be a potent weapon for the Irish. Enda Bolger's horse is proven around this track and comes from a yard that has specialised in tackling these unique events.
Commanche War Paint looks to be on an eye-catching weight and will have the assistance of Ruby Walsh, but it may be best to rely on the proven article that is Spot Thedifference.
The handicapping discrepancy between Britain and Ireland has made the inaugural running of the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle even more tricky, but Papini could be one to watch.
