Nearly three-quarters of voters do not believe that Taoiseach Bertie Ahern gave the full picture about his personal finances to the Mahon tribunal in September, while more than half of the electorate believes the whole episode is now a serious political issue, according to the Irish Times TNS mrbi opinion poll.
There has been a significant shift in opinion since the last poll just before the general election when more people believed Mr Ahern had given the full picture about his finances, and more than half the voters did not believe it was a serious issue.
When asked if, in the light of his recent appearance at the Mahon tribunal, they believed Mr Ahern had given the full picture about his personal finances, 72 per said he had not, while 17 per cent said he had, and 10 per cent had no opinion.
Back in May, when people were asked if he had given the full picture, 58 per cent said he had not and 29 per cent said he had.
On the question of whether the matter was a serious political issue, there was an even bigger shift in public opinion since the election. Now 56 per cent of people think it is a serious issue and 34 per cent think it is not. This is a complete reversal of the position in May when 54 per cent felt that it was not a serious political issue and just 36 per cent felt it was.
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a national quota sample of 1,000 adults aged 18 and over at 100 sampling points across the 43 constituencies.
On his personal finances Fianna Fáil voters were more likely than supporters of other parties to believe he had given the full picture at the tribunal but even in this group a majority felt he had more questions to answer.
Among Fianna Fáil supporters 48 per cent felt he had further questions to answer while 35 per cent felt that he had given the full picture. The view among supporters of his Coalition partners in the Green Party was more negative, with 80 per cent saying he had further questions to answer.
There were also big variations between the supporters of different parties on the issue of whether or not the disclosures at the Mahon tribunal represented a serious political issue. Back in May just 19 per cent of Fianna Fáil supporters felt it was a serious issue while 73 per cent believed it was not. This time around 29 per cent of them said it was a serious political issue but 60 per cent still believe it is not.
Among Green voters 75 per cent believe it is a serious political issue and just 18 per cent believe it is not. PD supporters are more evenly divided but a majority, 51 per cent, believes it is a serious issue while 43 per cent believe it is not. Fine Gael and Labour supporters believe strongly that it is a serious issue with 75 per cent in both parties taking this view.
Asked about the succession to the Fianna Fáil leadership, in light of Mr Ahern's indication that he would not lead the party into the next election, the Tánaiste, Brian Cowen, was well ahead of all of his potential rivals.
Mr Cowen was the first choice of 28 per cent of voters, followed in joint second on 10 per cent by the Minister for Justice, Brian Lenihan, and the Minister for Enterprise and Employment, Micheál Martin.
The Minister for Education, Mary Hanafin, came in fourth with 8 per cent and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dermot Ahern, fifth on 6 per cent. Sixteen per cent said they favoured none of the five mentioned while 21 per cent had no opinion.
Mr Cowen has a much bigger lead among Fianna Fáil supporters than he does among the wider public, with 46 per cent backing from his party's voters.
