Senior Ulster Unionist Party MP Mr John Taylor has warned that a return to direct rule is inevitable in the absence of IRA decommissioning by February 12th. On that date the Ulster Unionist Council is to decide whether the UUP should remain in government with Sinn Fein.
Amid the continuing political fallout from Mr Peter Mandelson's decision to implement the bulk of the Patten report on policing, there were calls from the DUP and the Northern Ireland Unionist Party for the resignation of the UUP leader, Mr David Trimble.
While the two anti-agreement parties claimed Mr Trimble must accept responsibility for the adoption of the main elements of the Patten report, Mr Taylor, the UUP's deputy leader in Westminster, rallied to his support.
He said he was fully behind Mr Trimble and indicated that the strength of the Labour Party was such that the UUP was not able to force it to abandon Patten.
"It's very difficult to overcome the policies of that government. They can do what they want. They have full support in the House of Commons," Mr Taylor told BBC Radio Ulster yesterday.
He believed the chances of IRA decommissioning were "absolutely minimal", and predicted that without a move on arms by the time of the unionist council meeting, direct rule from Westminster would be reinstated. But even in such an eventuality, there would be gains for unionists.
"I must point out that that will be better than direct rule two years ago because there will be no constitutional claim over Northern Ireland in the Irish Republic and there will be no Anglo-Irish Agreement. So unionists have gained in this process," he said.
Mr Taylor speculated that if direct rule was imposed it would continue until May, the final date for paramilitary decommissioning, as suggested in the Belfast Agreement. Then the British government would try to establish a government without Sinn Fein.
"It will then be in the hands of the SDLP, if they are prepared to reject Sinn Fein/IRA because they have failed to honour the Belfast Agreement, and come into partnership with the other parties. If they do that, the process can be saved," he said.
"If they don't do it, they will disappear from the political map over the next five years," he continued. Sinn Fein would then eclipse the SDLP, he said.
The Sinn Fein MLA Mr Gerry Kelly said Mr Taylor's comments about pocketing both the scrapping of the Anglo-Irish Agreement and of Articles 2 and 3 if there were no IRA decommissioning was a "remarkable revelation of unionist thinking and strategy".
He asked whether this was the "goal of unionists throughout the entire process".
The Sinn Fein Education Minister, Mr Martin McGuinness, referring to unionist anger over Patten, said now was the time for unionists to remain "cool, calm and collected". He repeated that decommissioning must be a voluntary act.
