JORDAN HAS weathered the Arab Spring without falling victim to the hurricanes sweeping Tunisia, Egypt and Syria but Jordanians fear storms of protest if serious reforms are not enacted soon.
Jordan faces the same political, economic and social problems plaguing other countries in a region where the rich prosper and the poor suffer, corruption is rife, and unemployment and the cost of living are rising. Nevertheless, there have been no massive demonstrations here, unlike Tunisia and Egypt, and little violence, unlike Libya and Syria.
There are many reasons for these differences. Jordanians are calling for reform, not regime change. There has been no blood-letting: one person died of a heart attack during a small rally in 2011. The incomplete “revolutions” in Tunis and Egypt, the war in Libya and the civil conflict in Syria have dampened people’s enthusiasm for protest.
The police, security forces and army are drawn from families, clans and tribes loyal to the monarchy, making it difficult for them to revolt against their sons. The tribes, the bedrock foundation of the kingdom, have the ear of King Abdullah.
Jordanians of Palestinian origin, who constitute the majority, have nowhere else to go. Those who have prospered have an economic stake in the country. The rest have citizenship, passports and status that could, in theory, be revoked. The fear of being made stateless is a major constraint.
While there are human rights abuses in Jordan, these are not as brutal and flagrant as in Libya, Egypt and Syria, therefore protesters have not resorted to violence or armed rebellion.
Former minister Musa Maaytah, a liberal socialist, said: “The opposition has accepted that reforms should be under the king”, who engages the opposition in dialogue.
For more than half a century, the main opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, was part of the establishment and supported the king against leftist and Arab nationalist opposition groups. The Brotherhood’s political wing, the Islamic Action Front, enjoys the support of between 20 and 25 per cent of the electorate. However, since its main strength is among Palestinians, it has few backers among Jordanians of tribal background who resent the Palestinians.
Radical Salafi fundamentalists, who are an emerging force in Egypt, Tunisia and Syria, are not strong in Jordan.
Analyst and activist Lamis Andoni said Jordan’s secular opposition lacks cohesion and vision. She noted that in Egypt the well established labour movement played a central role in the uprising, while labour activism has been suppressed systematically in Jordan.
“People here are more conscious of their rights” and aware that they can claim their rights rather than take to the streets, she added.
Mr Maaytah said Jordan’s ties to the US and Europe are a “force for stability and make Jordan an important country in the region”, particularly because the Salafis are a growing presence in neighbouring Iraq and Syria.
There is widespread agreement that change is essential and that the reforms put in place so far have been limited and late.
“Every year there are 70,000 new university graduates who need jobs. Pay must keep pace with the cost of living,” said Khaled Kalaldeh, a doctor. He argued that Jordan needs to adopt the social-market economic model exemplified by Sweden and Germany, rather than the free market espoused by the US. Jordan needs a “dynamic private sector and a generous public sector”, he said. In his view, the current privatisation drive is destroying the public school system and health services and corrupting the administration and the courts.
Dr Kalaldeh said Jordan needs “good politicians” to achieve change rather than self-interested politicos who benefit from the status quo and resist change.
Jordanians express concern that if Jordan fails to effect essential reforms soon, citizens under the age of 30 could take to the streets to demand regime change. In Jordan this could mean not only ending the term of a president, as in Tunisia and Egypt, but also the transformation of the king into a constitutional monarch, or even the renunciation of the monarchy.
So far, as the king said, “History will record the Jordanian Spring was civilised.” But Jordanians have yet to taste the fruits of long-awaited reforms.
