Constituency profile/Strangford: Strangford mostly takes in the beautiful Ards peninsula and suburban or dormitory areas touching east and south Belfast. It is a predominantly unionist constituency but, as elsewhere, there are gradual demographic changes.
The main Catholic or nationalist population is located in the Co Down hurling territory around the tip of the peninsula, which includes Portaferry, and in the town of Carryduff on the outskirts of Belfast. There are the makings of an SDLP quota in the constituency.
From 1983 until 2001 this was the Westminster stronghold of Lord Kilclooney, formerly John Taylor, who two years ago stood down as MP, effectively handing over the seat to Ms Iris Robinson, of the DUP. It must also be added, however, that Mr David McNarry posed a reasonable challenge to Ms Robinson in 2001, although he was aided by Alliance people voting tactically for the UUP.
While those votes may this time return to the Alliance candidate and outgoing MLA, Mr Kieran McCarthy, nonetheless Mr McNarry should be elected with Lord Kilclooney.
Ms Robinson and Lord Kilclooney were the two big vote-winners in Strangford in 1998. Their surpluses and transfers helped bring in one extra seat for their parties. Mr McCarthy won for Alliance while Mr Cedric Wilson, then of the UK Unionist Party, now leader of the Northern Ireland Unionist Party, gained the fifth unionist seat.
Mr Wilson is a plucky fighter, a previous survivor against the odds, but this time he is in trouble. He won last time with only 7 per cent of the vote - half a quota - but it seems likely that he will fall victim to the predatory instincts of the other parties. The main threat appears to be from the DUP, but the SDLP is also in the hunt.
The DUP, through outgoing MLA Mr Jim Shannon and newcomer Mr George Ennis, is trying to win three seats in Strangford, although the SDLP and its candidate, Mr Joe Boyle, contend that they can either prevent the DUP winning that third seat or take Mr McCarthy's Alliance seat.
In 1998 the SDLP was 159 votes shy of winning a first seat in Strangford and it believes that it can make up the difference this time. Accordingly, the party is aggressively targeting first preferences and transfers from all quarters.
Equally, Mr McCarthy is conscious of the danger and is defending his patch.
Hard to call. But, as in other marginal constituencies, the distribution of surpluses and transfers will be crucial to the outcome.
