COUNCIL PROFILE: DUBLIN CITY:THE LARGEST local authority in the State changed beyond recognition in the 2004 elections with two-thirds – 33 out of 52 councillors – taking office for the first time following the end of the dual mandate.
Newcomers are unlikely to have it so easy this time out with 46 of the sitting councillors running for re-election. However, 15 of the sitting councillors are unelected, having been co-opted mid-term to replace councillors who resigned, and many of these will be as unfamiliar to the electorate as any first-time candidate.
Boundary changes, which have lead to the amalgamation of some wards since the last local elections, may also give some room for manoeuvring and could disadvantage some sitting councillors.
The north inner city ward is gaining a seat, from five to six councillors. This constituency has only one newly co-opted councillor, Independent Maureen O’Sullivan, who took over from Mick Rafferty last year.
Ms O’Sullivan is also running for the Dáil seat held by the late Tony Gregory, with whom she worked for many years. By her own admission she is unlikely to have success in the byelection, but as long as the double ballot doesn’t confuse voters she stands a good chance of holding on to her council seat.
The reduction in Donaghmede from five seats to four could hit Tom Brabazon, the sole Fianna Fáil councillor in this ward. If there is only one Labour seat the smart money has to be on Seán Kenny, who has made an impact as chairman of the council’s traffic committee. The likely loss could be the only sitting Fine Gael representative, the co-opted Pat Crimmins.
The amalgamation of Artane and Whitehall wards will make for a real scramble for seats. Fianna Fáil’s Seán Paul Mahon and Julia Carmichael, Declan Flanagan of Fine Gael and Labour’s Andrew Montague will all be battling hard to retain seats. The new Finglas/Ballymun amalgamation is also hard to call. Sinn Féin is confident it will hold both its seats. The only sitting Labour candidate John Lyons is co-opted, so his mettle is yet to be tested.
South of the river Crumlin/Kimmage is losing one seat, which could very well hit Independent Joan Collins. Now running under the People Before Profit banner, she was elected last time out as an anti bin-tax candidate, an issue which is now redundant.
The new six-seater of Pembroke/Rathmines will be one of the most difficult to crack with Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour all at risk of losing numbers. A new Fianna Fáil candidate in this ward, Garrett Tubridy, may get a boost from name recognition (his brother is RTÉ’s Ryan Tubridy), but it will be an incredibly difficult pitch for any new entrant.
It would be hard to see how Fianna Fáil could do worse than in 2004 when they dropped from 22 to 12 seats. However, candidates from all parties report dissatisfaction with the Government on the doorstep, expressed as “concern about the economy” by Fianna Fáilers and “anger at Fianna Fáil” by everyone else.
Local issues are less prominent than in previous elections and those who campaigned on the “evils” of incineration or bin tax last time could find themselves somewhat rudderless.
Concerns about traffic and public transport are still high on the agenda, particularly in the suburbs where a lot of older residents fear the loss of bus routes.
In the inner city wards, candidates are getting a hammering in relation to the collapse of the regeneration projects, possibly the biggest disaster presided over by the council in the last 18 months. Unemployment is the major concern in these wards.
Fianna Fáil will probably hold its much reduced number of seats, with possibly one or two losses.
Labour and Fine Gael are the most likely parties to make any gains, with Sinn Féin likely to hold its seats.
The Greens have no one on the council since the resignation from the party by Bronwen Maher, but she could hold her seat as an independent. Depending on how Ms Collins and Ms O’Sullivan fare there may be very few independents left on what is a local authority dominated by large parties.
The demise of the PDs, who had one seat on the council, is unlikely to provide any new opportunities as the seat was held in the now very cluttered Pembroke/ Rathmines ward.
HOW THE PARTIES STAND (Outgoing)
FF12
FG10
Lab15
SF10
Others4
PD1
