Raffarin can count on winning French election on Sunday

FRANCE: The first time she met Mr Jean-Pierre Raffarin, Ms Bernadette Chirac told her husband, the French President, "I've found…

FRANCE: The first time she met Mr Jean-Pierre Raffarin, Ms Bernadette Chirac told her husband, the French President, "I've found your future prime minister".

The First Lady and the new head of government get along like chalk and cheese, so their campaign trip yesterday to Corrèze, the department in south-central France that is the holy land of Chiraquisme, was symbolic.

The presidential couple uneasily share their home turf with Mr Francois Hollande, the socialist party leader who is campaigning for re-election in the Tulle constituency.

Mr Raffarin has not yet won Sunday's election, but he can safely count on it.

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On Monday, he will go through the motion of submitting his resignation to Mr Chirac. The right-wing President has already assured Mr Raffarin that he will remain in office.

On Tuesday, the Prime Minister will announce a cabinet shuffle, adding at most 10 posts to the 27-member government he named on May 7th.

The Minister for European Affairs, Mr Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres, will probably be replaced by Mr Patrick Devedjian, the current minister for "local liberties" and Mr Chirac's lawyer.

When they chose him for the European portfolio, Mr Chirac and Mr Raffarin forgot to check Mr Donnedieu de Vabres's judicial record. In 1998, he was placed under investigation for delivering a suitcase filled with 5 million francs in cash to a shady Franco-Italian bank.

The money was for the use of the Parti républicain, which subsequently became Démocratie libérale.

The three main parties on the right, the RPR, DL and UDF, are about to be merged in the nascent Union for the Presidential Majority (UMP).

A fraction of the UDF, led by its leader, Mr Francois Bayrou, is resisting.

A precedent under the previous prime ministers Bérégovy and Balladur established that as soon as there was any suspicion about a cabinet minister's probity, he must resign.

But Mr Chirac briefly resisted the sacking of Mr Donnedieu de Vabres on the grounds that he was innocent until proven guilty.

The President's primary concern was not for the European Affairs Minister, but for Mr Alain Juppé, the former prime minister who is Mr Chirac's heir apparent. Mr Juppé has been implicated in several financial scandals involving the RPR, which Mr Chirac founded in 1976.

In anticipation of their victory on Sunday, right-wing politicians are scrambling for the spoils. Mr Juppé considered asking for "the perch" - the presidency of the National Assembly. But he decided to become leader of the UMP instead.

With some €36 million per year in government funding, the new party will be rich, and could help Mr Juppé win the 2007 presidential election. That leaves the former prime minister, Mr Edouard Balladur, and the former cabinet ministers, Mr Jean-Louis Debré and Mr Philippe Douste-Blazy to fight over "the perch".

Meanwhile, Mr Raffarin made a pre-election gesture to French hunters, extending open season on migrating birds by one month. His new text contradicts an earlier decision by the Council of State, but by the time it's sorted out, the UMP will have won its majority in the National Assembly.

Lara Marlowe

Lara Marlowe

Lara Marlowe is an Irish Times contributor