Constituency profile: East Belfast:Peter Robinson is anxious to gain an additional third seat for the DUP in East Belfast and one of the target seats is that of Dawn Purvis. Earlier in the campaign you would be minded to write off her chances but now you'd wonder.
She succeeded to the leadership of the Progressive Unionist Party on the death of David Ervine, and was co-opted to his East Belfast seat shortly before the transitional Assembly dissolved. "I think I was an MLA for 13-and-a-half hours," she says.
We're in Ballymacarrett, a tight, proud but pretty rundown area between the Lower Newtownards Road and the Albertbridge Road, not far from the nationalist Short Strand. "No, we don't canvass the Short Strand, but we'd welcome any transfers they're offering," says Purvis.
It's a dark, wet, miserable night. At first it's quiet, ominous even. Is this a requiem for a lost leader and a lost party? Kate Nelson, who worked with David Ervine, is wearing a sensible coat and hat against the incessant rain. "We all miss David awfully," she says.
Then Stephen Beattie thunders on to the scene, driving around the narrow two-up, two-down, redbrick streets, exhorting local voters from loudspeakers to "Vote for a new Dawn . . . vote for Dawn Purvis to hold David Ervine's seat".
"Hey Kate, you look like a Free Presbyterian in that hat," he adds, stirring it up.
Local doctor and PUP councillor John Kyle is also out on the stomp. "I joined the PUP because of their fresh, creative thinking," he says, between knocking on the doors and selling the new dawn message on a dark wet night.
At first there are just a few canvassers but then they begin materialising from the little streets, silhouetted in the street lights and rain, and in a matter of minutes there's cheerleader Beattie in the PUP car and a storm-trooping, carefully organised unit of 16 PUP-ers knocking on doors, distributing leaflets, urging number ones for Purvis.
Later too, David Ervine's widow Jeanette arrives to offer support. There's hugs and kisses all round. She's still, naturally, very shook, and finds it even difficult to speak about her late husband. "I'm doing this for Dave, and for Dawn too," she says.
Dawn Purvis argues that it's crucial she holds Ervine's seat. "It's important that progressive unionism continues to have influence with the UVF [ to which the PUP is linked], and without question we can have influence," she says.
East Belfast is bulging with political leaders. As well as Dawn Purvis there's the leader of the Ulster Unionists, Sir Reg Empey, and deputy leaders Peter Robinson of the DUP and Naomi Long of Alliance. And while he represents North Antrim, DUP leader Ian Paisley lives in East Belfast.
Naoimi Long, with her flaming red hair, is now pretty well established as an East Belfast Assembly member. The comment of one young male out on the canvass, "Oh, you're the girl on the poster," delighted her. Recognition is all, and while her admirer was only eight, Long figures this just proves Alliance is making its impact. "The response on the doorstep has been very positive," she says.
Ulster Unionist leader Sir Reg Empey is also confident that the party will emerge holding on to its two Assembly seats, notwithstanding the voracious appetite of the DUP. So, if Purvis is also to hold for the PUP and the DUP are to get three seats, something has to give, which is why it is so competitive in the constituency.
The DUP, to quote one senior party figure, is attempting to "do a Fianna Fáil in East Belfast and other constituencies" by, for once, actually managing its vote. With Robinson as a vote magnet the DUP has three quotas in the constituency but only two seats. It's a virility thing with the DUP, but this time they are hoping to spread around the political testosterone.
Robinson has allotted his two running mates twice as big an area as he has in terms of seeking first preferences. "So, we better get three seats because I might be the third one," he jokes, just a shade ruefully. And as part of that vote management Dr Paisley won't be voting number one for his deputy. He is instructed to vote number one for one of the other two candidates.
"I trust I'll get a transfer from Ian," says Robinson.
NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUND:There isn't one. Sinn Féin and the SDLP, each fielding one candidate, will be hoping for a decent show to create the prospect of a breakthrough some time in the distant future in this predominantly unionist constituency, and to enhance its chances in future local government elections, particularly if the proposed seven super councils to replace the current 26 are established.
UNIONIST BATTLEGROUND:Fierce tussle here. Peter Robinson being tested to win an additional third seat for the DUP by helping to bring home outgoing MLA Robin Newton and former Belfast lord mayor Wallace Brown, now in the House of Lords. It's all about vote management, thus far more the forte of SF than DUP. In 2003 Robinson won 9,254 votes to 1,475 for Newton while the management was even worse in 1998 - 11,219 for Robinson, 633 for Sammy Wilson, brought in on transfers. Chief target is Dawn Purvis of PUP, who was co-opted to the seat of the late David Ervine. While initially her prospects would appear slim she has a redblooded campaign team straining muscle and sinew to defy the odds, and she can't be dismissed. If the UUP can't hold two seats here, that of leader Sir Reg Empey and either outgoing MLA Michael Copeland or Jim Rodgers, then the party will be deemed in serious decline.
WILD CARDS:Dawn Purvis (see above) is the only real wild card here. Naomi Long of Alliance has consolidated her position and this should be one of Alliance's few relatively safe seats.
PREDICTION:It would seem one for Alliance, two for UUP and at least two for DUP. Forgive the cop-out but it's just too early to make a stab at whether Purvis can build up enough steam to hold David Ervine's seat or whether DUP will snaffle it. Will attempt to call it closer to poll.
OUTGOING MEMBERS
*Peter Robinson (DUP) (29.9%)
*Sir Reg Empey (UUP) (20.9%)
Dawn Purvis, co-opted following death of *David Ervine (PUP) (9.7%)
Naomi Long (Alliance) (9.0%)
Michael Copeland (UUP) (7.4%) Robin Newton (DUP) (4.8%)
*Denotes those also elected in 1998.
Quota 15 per cent
