ANTI-GOVERNMENT SENTIMENT and a distrust of politicians accounted for more than 50 per cent of the No vote in the recent fiscal treaty referendum, research published by the European Parliament has found.
The referendum on May 31st was passed by 60.2 per cent to 39.8 per cent, with a turnout of 50.6 per cent.
The Eurobarometer survey of 2,000 voters conducted the following day found that the majority of anti-treaty voters were making a political protest and did not list dissatisfaction with the treaty itself as high among their reasons for voting No.
Some 28 per cent of No voters interviewed said they had done so in opposition to the Government. A further 24 per cent said they had voted No because they distrusted politicians or felt they were misleading the people.
An only slightly lower number, 20 per cent, said they voted No because they did not understand or lacked information about the treaty.
Whether the treaty would be good or bad for Ireland was not a major deciding factor for either No or Yes voters.
Only 13 per cent had voted No because they felt the treaty would be bad for Ireland, but not many more – 18 per cent – voted Yes because they felt the treaty would be good for Ireland.
Just 11 per cent said they were voting No because of austerity measures and slightly fewer again (10 per cent) said economic factors had influenced their No vote.
The top two reasons people gave for voting Yes related to economic necessity and the need for stability (24 per cent) and the uncertainty and instability attached to a No vote (23 per cent). Access to future funding or “bailouts” was the next most popular reason for supporting the treaty at 22 per cent.
Few voters on either side of the fence felt their vote was much influenced by political leadership. Just 9 per cent of Yes voters said they had been following Government or other political advice, even fewer (3 per cent) of No voters said they were voting No on the advice of politicians or parties.
While almost 30 per cent of No voters had said they had been making an anti-Government protest, just 6 per cent of Yes voters said their vote was cast in support of the Government. A slightly lower number (5 per cent) said they voted Yes because they didn’t like Sinn Féin. On the No side, the same proportion of voters cited an “anti-German” sentiment as a reason for voting against the treaty. Voters most likely to have voted No were aged 35-44 – half of this group opposed the treaty.
Researchers found a strong class factor in the referendum result. Two-thirds of upper- and middle-class voters were in favour of the treaty, topped only by farmers who voted 89 per cent in favour. However, only 42 per cent of unskilled workers, unemployed voters or others dependent on benefits cast a Yes vote.
Richard Sinnott. professor of political science at UCD, who led the research said this aspect was quite surprising, “In a country known for having a very low level of class conflict or cleavage, this is a fairly remarkable response.”
