Two out of five European voters say their votes in next week's European Parliament elections will be significantly influenced by NATO's actions in Serbia, a major poll conducted in 12 EU states has found.
It is a finding that will give little comfort to the governments and mainstream parties throughout Europe which have backed NATO unequivocally and appears likely to reinforce the votes of Eurosceptic forces.
The poll, which was conducted in Ireland exclusively for The Irish Times by MRBI Ltd under European co-ordination by Louis Harris, found majority opposition to the NATO campaign in four of the states and a majority opposed to the use of ground forces in Kosovo in eight of them.
In both cases in Ireland there was majority support for military action - by 46 to 42 per cent and 45 to 41 per cent for use of ground forces. But the majorities in each case do not reflect the support of parties in the Dail which have backed NATO. Yet 47 per cent of respondents say their vote will be affected by the NATO campaign.
The poll, conducted between May 6th and 22nd, well into the military campaign and after the emergence of the first NATO "errors", involved all EU member-states with the exceptions of Sweden, Portugal and the Netherlands.
The findings show a rift between north and south in the Union, with Italy, Spain, and particularly Greece, as well as neutral Austria, opposed to the NATO campaign with opposition outweighing support by 46 to 37 per cent, 48 to 34 per cent, a staggering 97 to 2 per cent, and 43 to 41 per cent respectively.
Greece again reflects the strongest opposition to use of ground troops against its Orthodox neighbours, but the hand of history also weighs heavily on Germany, where the poll found a dramatic 78 per cent opposition to ground troops' use, despite the fact that a majority of 52 to 40 per cent support NATO's current campaign.
Finland, Belgium, and Luxembourg also have majorities opposed to the use of ground troops.
MEPs on the election trail may be comforted by the fact that, overall, 71 per cent of respondents believe the European elections to be either rather or very important. In Ireland that figure is 70 per cent. But the responses are countered by the fact that where voting is not compulsory or coinciding with national elections, turnout figures will in many cases be only half to two-thirds that level. Those least impressed are the Finns.
The domination of the elections by domestic concerns is particularly notable in some states. While more respondents in the 12 admitted that their vote would be determined on domestic rather than European issues (46 to 39 per cent), in Ireland the gap was much wider (66 to 20 per cent).
While that pattern was broadly shared in Finland, Denmark, and Greece, voters in Germany, France and Italy by narrow majorities say they are more influenced by European concerns.
At a time when the EU is talking of reinforcing its military capabilities, support for the much more ambitious idea of a common European army is, not surprisingly, strongest among those whose governments have traditionally supported the idea - France (73 per cent), Italy (60 per cent), Belgium and Luxembourg (61 and 62 per cent). An overall level of support of 52 per cent appears remarkably high.
Yet the idea is still barely a runner among the neutrals - Ireland (27 per cent), Finland (21 per cent), and Austria (35 per cent), perhaps reflecting a divided view among the coalition partners. Britain is also solidly opposed (35 per cent), while Germany is split (53 per cent).
The creation of that bete noire of the British tabloids, the common European government, or as they put it, the "Euro-superstate", gets support from 71 per cent of Italians, reflecting their Euro-enthusiasm but also disenchantment with their own battered state.
But only 8 per cent of the Eurosceptic Danes will have any truck with it.
The idea of a directly-elected European president splits the electorate of the 12 down the middle (50 per cent).
The idea appeals least to the Danes (10 per cent), then the Finns (15 per cent) and most to the Italians (70 per cent) and the Greeks (63 per cent).
Ireland's satisfaction with the replacement of the pound by the euro, at 52 per cent, corresponds with last November's MRBI poll precisely. When, however, asked a somewhat more theoretical question in the Commission's Eurobarometer poll last autumn, three-quarters of Irish respondents said they were "for" rather than "against" the euro.
The currency has clearly some way to go to prove itself in practice.
Only Britain's score (23 per cent) is worse than Ireland's (25 per cent) on awareness of the Commission President-designate, Mr Romano Prodi, while not surprisingly 96 per cent of Italians have heard of him, followed by 76 per cent of Luxembourgers.
The poll reflects only a low level of confidence in the ability of the European Parliament or the European Commission to improve the economic and social situation of the average citizen, ranging from a quarter (Greece) to only just over half of respondents (Luxembourg). But then most people (51 per cent) do not feel any confidence in national governments to do so either.
Political satisfaction with the way the EU is evolving reflects widely differing views. While 59 per cent of the Irish say they are very satisfied or rather satisfied, with Belgium and Luxembourg not far behind on 53 per cent, only a fifth of Greeks (20 per cent), a third of Austrians (34 per cent) and 39 per cent of Britons shared their view.
The Irish figure represents a small increase from 56 per cent in the MRBI poll in November.
Such serious Greek disenchantment is striking in a country where the latest Eurobarometer poll found that two-thirds of the population regarded EU membership as a good thing. Like Ireland, Greece has been a substantial net recipient of EU funds. Greek views are partly explained by massive disenchantment with NATO actions - they are the second highest among those who say the war will affect their voting intentions.
It may also well be linked to the exclusion of the country from the launch of the euro, with nearly three-quarters (72 per cent) of respondents describing themselves as unhappy with that (compared to only 25 per cent in the UK).
The poll also reflects wide differences in confidence about the respondents' own personal future, with the Finns top of the league (76 per cent either "very" or "rather confident"), and Ireland close behind (71 per cent), while in Italy and Greece barely half respond the same way (54 and 51 per cent respectively).
