It is the second day of the new year and the Northern Ireland parties are around the talks table again. Why?
The British and Irish governments and the North’s five main parties are in negotiation to reinstate the Northern Executive, which collapsed in January 2017 when the late Martin McGuinness resigned as Deputy First Minister in a row with the DUP and its leader Arlene Foster over the calamitous Renewable Heating Incentive or “cash for ash” scheme.
These talks seem to go on and on without any resolution, don’t they?
They certainly do. There were several attempts over those past three years to end the deadlock. The parties got close in February 2018 but that prospective deal collapsed because the DUP could not sell to its grassroots an agreement that involved legislation on the Irish language – an absolute key demand of Sinn Féin.
So will this be another groundhog talks event with the negotiations destined to collapse?
Not necessarily. With a big list of caveats there is quite a degree of confidence that a deal can be done before January 13th – the date the Northern Secretary Julian Smith has set for an agreement. Without a deal he says he will call Assembly elections.
Why would anybody believe it will be any different this time?
Because of those elections. As Samuel Johnson said, the threat of a hanging concentrates the mind, and the thought of Assembly elections certainly concentrates the minds of the DUP, and to a lesser extent Sinn Féin. The DUP lost two seats in the December Westminster general election and while Sinn Féin held steady with seven seats its percentage vote dropped and it too wouldn’t fancy Assembly elections at the moment. The DUP and Sinn Féin would have fears of the threat from the centre ground, as reflected in how the SDLP won two seats and Alliance won one in the election.
Who are the main politicians at the table?
The Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney is leading for the Irish Government and Northern Secretary Julian Smith for the British government. The respective party leaders – Arlene Foster of the DUP, Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O’Neill for Sinn Féin, Colum Eastwood of the SDLP, Steve Aiken of the Ulster Unionist Party and Naomi Long of Alliance – are centrally involved, supported by their most senior lieutenants.
Surely, after all those sets of previous negotiations there can’t be too much left to talk about?
True, but while most of the key issues have been addressed the parties say there are “issues on the margins” that must be tackled. These include fine-tuning how the Irish language matter is dealt with – that problem could be wrapped up in broad cultural legislation also dealing with Ulster Scots and identity issues; ensuring that any restored Northern Executive and Assembly is sustainable and can’t be crashed again on the whim of a disgruntled Sinn Féin or DUP leader; amending the petition of concern, the device which allows motions which have majority support in the Assembly to be vetoed if one party can get 30 Assembly members to sign the opposing petition; and prompting the British government to provide a restored Northern Executive with a huge cash injection to deal with matters such as the health crisis, education, infrastructure and a range of cash-starved public services.
Why is the Irish language such a sticking point?
Nationalists feel that the DUP in particular has disrespected both them and the language. They refer to DUP MLA Gregory Campbell’s “curry my yogurt” take on the Irish language and the DUP’s withdrawal of a paltry Irish language grant for young people to visit the Donegal Gaeltacht. Some unionists claim that an Irish language Act would diminish their and Northern Ireland’s sense of Britishness. Nationalists in turn cite how Scotland and Wales have their own language Acts and that life rolls on as it always has.
And why is the petition of concern at the centre of the talks?
The petition was designed to protect minority rights after the Northern Executive and Assembly created by the 1998 Belfast Agreement slowly and haltingly got off the ground from 1999 onwards. There are claims that it was abused by the two bigger parties, for instance in the case of the DUP to prevent the introduction of same-sex marriage, even though a majority of MLAs supported its introduction, and that Sinn Féin tried to use the petition to block a motion whereby former paramilitary prisoners with serious convictions could not become special political advisers at Stormont. That attempt failed as Sinn Féin could only raise 29 signatories to oppose the motion instead of the necessary 30. The smaller SDLP, UUP and Alliance parties have proposed an amendment whereby an independent arbiter would decide when such petitions could be used. The DUP in particular has reservations about this proposal, arguing that any diminution of the mechanism would damage minority interests.
How likely is a successful outcome?
Optimism is a dangerous and frequently confounded state of mind when it comes to Northern Ireland politics. But the reason there is a good chance this time is because the DUP and Sinn Féin – the two largest and key players if there is to be a deal – would not welcome Assembly elections now. A restored and properly functioning Stormont also would demonstrate in the South ahead of the forthcoming general election that Sinn Féin is capable of coalition government. Moreover, the final issues to be addressed are far from major and well capable of solution.
