Close to 110,000 more people voted in this Northern Assembly election compared to ten months ago - which could mean significant change when the count is concluded.
This time, the people of Northern Ireland decided to speak with a louder and greater voice, and at this stage of the counting the biggest beneficiary will be Sinn Féin.
When all results are in the DUP should still be the largest party but Sinn Féin may not be far behind.
In the 2016 Assembly election 703,744 people, or 55 per cent of the electorate, turned out to return 38 DUP Assembly members, 28 for Sinn Féin, 16 for the Ulster Unionists, 12 for the SDLP, 8 for Alliance and six for the smaller parties and independents.
This time 812,783 people, or 65 per cent of the electorate, voted to elect 90 MLAs to the Assembly which is reduced in size from 108 seats.
The high turnout demonstrates that people were invigorated, in many cases angered, over issues such as the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme which could cost half a million sterling more than it should, the Irish language and matters such as showing basic manners across the political divide.
It seems that nationalists more than unionists were compelled to come out and voice their opinion about the state of politics in Northern Ireland.
Michelle O’Neill
For instance in Mid-Ulster where new Sinn Féin leader Michelle O’Neill is standing the turnout was 72 per cent, up by 13 per cent.
This would indicate that Sinn Féin is on course to hold its three seats in the constituency, which is difficult to do in a constituency reduced in size from six to five seats.
In West Belfast where Orlaithi Flynn was declared elected for Sinn Fein, and the first MLA home, the Sinn Fein vote was strong and disciplined, while People Before Profit which had been damaging that republican vote dipped significantly. It seemed certain in West Belfast that veteran SDLP politician Alex Attwood would lose his seat.
DUP
DUP leader Arlene Foster, at least, can be buoyed by the fact that the turnout in her Fermanagh South Tyrone constituency was up by almost 8 per cent to 73 per cent from last year. That could mean that the DUP argument that unionists failing to support the DUP could lead to Ms O'Neill in line for the First Minister post with Gerry Adams pulling the strings carried weight.
The vagaries of the proportional representation system also apply and how transfers are distributed right down to the last and fifth seat in each of the 18 five-seater constituencies will be crucial. For many there will be political salvation or political destruction in the battles for those last seats.
But nonetheless it seems that the party most vulnerable to the ten per cent surge in turnout is the DUP.
From the moment that Martin McGuinness stood down as Deputy First Minister in January, and even from before Christmas when the cash for ash debacle took wing, DUP leader Arlene Foster and her party have been on the back foot. It is difficult to hold what you have when you are constantly on the defensive.
Equally, it seems that the party likely to benefit most by the higher turnout will be Sinn Féin.
Proportionally if the same pattern of voting applied as last year then the DUP would expect to win 32 seats, Sinn Féin 23, the UUP 13, the SDLP 10, Alliance 7, and the smaller representatives dropping one of their six seats.
But Sinn Féin in constituencies such as Mid-Ulster and North Belfast where, had it been a much lower turnout, would have been in danger of losing seats now seem in a good position to hold these seats, and to return with more than 23 seats.
In contrast the DUP in constituencies such as North Belfast and South Belfast where respectively it was attempting to hold three and two seats would seem vulnerable.
Gap Narrowed
Again with a severe health warning if that pattern translates across constituencies then the gap between the DUP and Sinn Féin will be narrowed, and perhaps narrowed dramatically. At this stage it seems unlikely that Sinn Féin would overtake the DUP but by tomorrow there may be considerably less daylight between the two parties. There were ten seats between the two parties last May. This time the difference may be countable on the fingers of one hand.
That will shake up politics. It will raise questions over Ms Foster’s leadership, particularly should the DUP representation slip below 30 seats. It will bring constitutional matters such as a Border poll to the fore. It will embolden Gerry Adams and Sinn Féin. It will cause unionism much reflection and unease.
The SDLP and Ulster Unionists, with their pledges of transferring votes to each other, also would expect to gain some advantage from the higher turnout. But whether that is the case won’t become clearer to later in the day when the psephologists have some idea of how the transfers will be distributed.
A Sinn Féin charge ahead in fact ultimately could be damaging to the SDLP, creating the notion that Sinn Féin really is the only nationalist player.
Still, there was some good news for SDLP leader Colum Eastwood in that Nichola Mallon, who was under threat in North Belfast, seemed likely to be returned. Alliance also would expect to at least hold what it has from the louder voice expressed by the electorate.
UUP leader Mike Nesbitt must be concerned that his party will drop seats. His hope will be that in the final counts he gets some of his more vulnerable candidates over the line.
The word from Foyle is that veteran socialist Eamonn McCann could be in trouble but to repeat again the last and fifth seats in most constituencies are unpredictable. It will be the last seats which determine how close will Sinn Féin be to the DUP.
There are still hours of nail-biting time for the candidates to sit through.
