The results of today's Irish Times/Ipsos poll will fire a warning shot across the bows of anyone in Government hoping to achieve a change in Ireland's traditional policy of military neutrality.
It demonstrates that for any change in neutrality to have majority public support a lot of people would have to change their minds. And despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, that shows no sign of happening.
The invasion has upended the European security environment, leading to fundamental changes in many countries. Germany abandoned its decades-old policy to send weapons to Ukraine; Finland and Sweden are moving to join Nato. Eastern European countries now feel directly threatened by Russia in a way they didn't – but perhaps should have –before February. But 2,000 miles to the west, in Ireland, that threat is not felt in the same way.
Today’s poll shows strong public support for Ukraine. Voters are willing to support Ukraine through tougher sanctions on Russia even if it means more costs to themselves. But non-military support, diplomatic and political backing, accommodating refugees – this is the limit of support. Irish voters are not willing to countenance military involvement, even to the extent of supplying or paying for weapons for the beleaguered Ukrainians.
Voters are afraid Ireland could be dragged into any conflict, they say, and therefore they want to stay neutral.
Over half of voters are against sending military aid to Ukraine (55 per cent) and playing a greater military role to defend the EU (54 per cent), while the majority that wants to maintain the status quo in relation to neutrality is even greater: 66 per cent in favour of neutrality as it is, and just 24 per cent who want to change it. These numbers look pretty solid.
Strategic compass
This complicates the picture for the Government if it wishes to join a closer EU military defence – as recent moves have indicated. At the most recent summit, EU leaders adopted the “strategic compass” – a plan for greater military and security co-operation between EU members states to defend the bloc against an external threat that was once notional but is now very real.
The “strategic compass” commits EU members to spend more on defence, develop their military and security capacity and to co-operate more with Nato. Documents published by the EU in advance of the summit describe the plan as an agreement “to make a quantum leap forward and increase our capacity and willingness to act, strengthen our resilience, and invest more and better in our defence capabilities”. Along with the other 27 leaders, Taoiseach Micheál Martin approved the proposal.
It’s not clear yet exactly what will be required of Ireland to participate in the plan, or how its operational parameters will be agreed. But it’s certainly going to require a better-equipped armed forces, and greater co-operation with other EU countries, and with Nato.
Is this a “military alliance” that would by the Irish definition violate its neutrality? It certainly sounds like it, doesn’t it?
The protocol inserted into the Lisbon Treaty to help ease its passage in the second Irish referendum stated that the treaty did not affect Ireland's traditional policy of military neutrality. A provision was also inserted into the Constitution at that time preventing Ireland from joining an EU common defence under article 42 of the treaty.
It’s not unlikely that any Irish moves towards participating in the “strategic compass” will be challenged in the courts here. And any referendum would – on the basis of today’s numbers – be very unlikely to be passed.
The private position of many people in Government is that the invasion of Ukraine has transformed the security situation for the EU, and Ireland cannot be left unaffected by that. Both Irish and EU officials say that after the solidarity shown to Ireland by EU countries during the Brexit negotiations, outright refusal to join new EU defence arrangements would leave Ireland hugely isolated at an EU level.
Self-defence
Publicly the Taoiseach and other Ministers have called for a debate on the future of neutrality. But it is clear that very significant legal and political hurdles remain in place for anything that threatens to change the status or the practice of Irish neutrality.
The Government will almost certainly argue that upgrading Ireland’s military defences, especially naval and air defences – as the Taoiseach has indicated in two recent speeches – is about self-defence, not taking part in a military alliance.
But it will need to tread carefully. Despite the fact that Irish neutrality has been loosely defined in the past – or maybe because of it – voters still have a very strong attachment to the idea. Tinkering with it is like trying to defuse a political bomb.
