Not since the collapse of the Fianna Fáil-Green Party coalition in the grip of economic meltdown in 2010 has Irish politics seen such scenes of high political drama and farce.
The laws of political logic suggested that Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald would have resigned last week over the latest Garda controversy, but she has dug in, backed to the hilt by her leader, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.
Up until yesterday, Fine Gaelers claimed this showed Varadkar doesn’t play by the usual rules, but his judgment is now being called into question, even by those closest to him.
The laws of political logic again suggest Fitzgerald will resign today to prevent plunging the country into a pre-Christmas general election that nobody wants. But those laws have been suspended thus far in this controversy.
The atmosphere yesterday swung like a pendulum. Leinster House was deserted, as it always is on Mondays, but Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin was one of those on campus, waiting for his meeting last night with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.
Earlier, with emollient sounds being made across the airwaves between Fianna Fáil TDs and their counterparts, it seemed as if a compromise was on the way, possibly with Fitzgerald’s appearance at the disclosures tribunal in January and yet more reform to the Department of Justice at the centre of a deal.
A visceral reaction to an election from party activists and the general public in constituencies over the weekend had a huge influence on TDs, and some Fine Gaelers even began entertaining a scenario where Fitzgerald could stand down as Tanaiste but remain on in Cabinet.
The election drumbeats in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael slowed, and those who met Martin reported he was in jovial form, predicting a rush to the polls would not happen for a number of months, at least.
Rumblings that the latest batch of emails on the affair contained further explosive material was proven correct just before 7pm, when a release from the Department of Justice showed that Ms Fitzgerald was “repeatedly” told in 2015 about an “aggressive” approach to undermine Garda whistleblower Sgt Maurice McCabe at the O’Higgins commission.
Fine Gael Ministers and deputies muttered that it was time for Fitzgerald to go, but Varadkar continued to express confidence in her.
To make matters worse, there was anger over the fact the Taoiseach knew about the emails in recent days but still sent his troops out to bat for the Tánaiste.
Last night, Government TDs, such as the usually voluble Noel Rock, decided to pull from broadcast appearances. Rock was due on TV3’s ‘The Tonight Show’ but probably thought better than defending a position that was, at best, changing and, at worst, crumbling.
Around the country, Fine Gael pressed ahead with its election selection conventions.
The Waterford convention, as Sarah Bardon reports, saw the end of the Deasy dynasty with maverick deputy John Deasy formally bowing out of politics.
A general election once more hinges on Fitzgerald’s position but, more accurately, Varadkar’s judgement.
The Tánaiste has so far been a hostage to a contest of political pride between the Taoiseach and the Fianna Fáil leader.
Fianna Fáil still wants her resignation and will press ahead with its motion of no confidence tonight if she does not step down. Varadkar says that will break the confidence-and-supply deal and cause an election.
Varadkar and Martin will meet again, and the Fine Gael Minsters will also hold their weekly meeting in advance of the Cabinet meeting.
It's going to be another rollercoaster today. Stay tuned to irishtimes.comfor all the developments.
