As far as sweeteners to a bitter pill go, having another €3.5 billion to throw at taxpayers is no bad thing. Unfortunately for the Coalition, amid the seemingly endless billions that have now been spent on the Government's Covid-19 response, that sum is likely to be somewhat lost amid the predictable fallout from the cuts to the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) to be confirmed later on Tuesday.
In Government, there are two near-universal views on the PUP. One is that as the economy reopens, it must be wound down. The other is that the Opposition will see this as a bona fide attack opportunity, probably the first genuine Covid-related vulnerability since the Coalition shipped multiple blows on mandatory hotel quarantine and travel over the winter.
As the Government has announced the gradual lifting of restrictions since then, and avoided a surge in infection, the Opposition has struggled to land meaningful blows. To such an extent, in fact, that the main lines of attack, after easing of restrictions was announced weeks ago, focused on the anticipated PUP cuts which are only being confirmed today, rather than Government policies being announced then.
The Opposition has been focused on this for some time and will seek to ram home key messages that the Coalition is uninterested in fairness, the welfare of vulnerable groups, and is unnecessarily opening up people to economic hardship. Expect lines of attack to focus on, among other things, the July cut-off date for new entrants, the likely exclusion of students from PUP from September, and the “A” word – austerity.
There will be pedantic arguments over what precisely austerity is and isn’t, but the fact of the matter is all the Government parties have recent history with austerity, and the Opposition will bet there is a constituency out there open to the argument that any cut is austerity. The Government also has recent history with the PUP – it was forced into two U-turns last summer over cuts to the levels paid out and holiday eligibility.
However, as news began to leak of the plan to cut PUP on Monday night, some in Government were bullish, believing the Coalition has answers ready to any criticisms from the Opposition. They also argue that the timeline to cut PUP is relatively benign and may even be “softened” further to ward off the risk of political backlash, if any is detected in the plan that goes to Cabinet on Tuesday morning. One source noted on Monday that the additional borrowing needed to do so would be small relative to already-committed sums: “For the sake of a couple of hundred million, we will play it safe.”
However, more important than cash or counterpunching lines is a belief among some in Government that it now has the unity of purpose and cohesion that was missing last summer, and will be key to winning this battle. We are about to see that theory tested.
News of the day
Our lead story looks at the PUP cuts and the rest of the economic recovery plan.
Political editor Pat Leahy analyses the plan.
Elsewhere on the front page, Martin Wall dashes the hopes of generations of schoolchildren as yet unborn with news of the demise of the snow day.
Patsy McGarry and Martin have details of unrest among the Defence Forces.
Best reads
Simon Carswell has the latest on the long-running saga of the 2014 data breach at Independent News & Media.
Fintan O'Toole is on the case for an inquiry into the pandemic – soon.
Naomi O'Leary reports on new travel proposals from the European Commission, while Conor Pope covers the cost of PCR tests for families wishing to travel overseas.
Guy Hedgecoe writes from Madrid on simmering tensions over pardons for Catalan politicians.
Fiona Neary has a thoughtful op-ed on forthcoming adoption information rights legislation.
Playbook
Much of the political action in the early part of Tuesday will be beyond the Convention Centre. It's an early start for the Cabinet, with the meeting scheduled to kick off at 8.30am. After the meeting, the three leaders will launch the State's new economic recovery plan from Dublin Castle, before the three line Ministers in charge of the relevant areas – Heather Humphreys, Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath – give a follow-up briefing to journalists.
In the afternoon, focus shifts to the banks of the Liffey, with Leaders' Questions courtesy of Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats, the Independent Group and the Rural Independent Group. That's at 2pm. Taoiseach's questions follow the Order of Business and a motion without debate on reforms to Dáil standing orders. That's scheduled for 3.04pm.
There is a Government motion on the situation in Belarus, before Private Members' Business on Sinn Féin's Judicial Council (Amendment) Bill – which aims to force insurers to provide more information on the impact of personal injuries guidelines and other matters to the Central Bank.
Eamon Ryan takes oral questions shortly after 8pm, before topical issues at 9.44pm. The Dáil is due to adjourn shortly after 10.30pm.
Shortly before midday, the Seanad will take the committee and remaining stages of the Maritime Jurisdiction Bill.
The committee on the Good Friday Agreement will hear representatives from Ireland's Future, while the sub-committee on mental health will hear of the mental health demands for those in the LGBTI+ community arising from the Covid-19 lockdowns from BeLonG to Youth Services and the Transgender Equality Network Ireland.
The Foreign Affairs committee will hear from the Colombian ambassador on the implementation of the 2016 peace agreement in that country. That's at 12.30pm, at the same time as Darragh O'Brien fields the first of two sessions at the housing committee on his Land Development Agency Bill.
The committee on issues affecting the traveller community will hear evidence on access to housing and accommodation from the Irish Traveller Movement, the National Traveller Women's Forum and Pavee Point. That's also at 12.30pm, while at 3.30pm, the Committee on Education will hear from the Irish Primary Principals' Network, the National Association of Principals and Deputy Principals, and the Association of Community and Comprehensive Schools on school bullying.
The day's committee action is rounded out by testimony from Dogs Trust and Horse Care Ireland on the regulation of the sale and supply of pets and animal welfare to the Agriculture Committee.
