There were a couple of big swings in this election, and we are not talking only about those in the Dean Hotel.
Let’s dispose first of all the canard of the “inexorable rise” of a party. If there are inexorable rises, they are always followed by inexorable falls.
There are clear winners in this election (the Greens and Fianna Fáil); partial winners (Fianna Fáíl and Fine Gael); partial losers (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) again; “standstillers” (Labour); partial losers (Solidarity/People Before Profit); and one clear loser: Sinn Féin.
Sinn Féin’s local election results were dismal. It lost half its seats and will lose one, and perhaps two, of its European seats. It’s been clear Sinn Féin has been on a slide since the general election.
There are a good few factors for this. Replacing a leader who presided over the republican movement for nearly 40 years is problematic - no matter how prominent Mary Lou McDonald is. The party has a bit of an identity crisis in the south. The united Ireland part is no longer as sharp a focus for some voters. The messages of 2014 - austerity and water charges - no longer apply. There have been the bullying claims.
I wonder, given the focus on climate change, whether the party’s opposition to increases in carbon tax dissuaded people from voting for it?
There is no easy answer to the question: what does Sinn Féin stand for nowadays? And the party needs to identify just that if it is to move on.
And the rest?
Fine Gael will crow about its success in the European elections, but it could end up with four MEPs, with the Maria Walsh seat bonus being cancelled by a possible defeat for Deirdre Clune. The party won a few more seats locally but still lagged Fianna Fáil.
In the local elections, Fianna Fáíl held onto its status as the largest party in local government and will be particularly pleased with its strong showing in working-class areas of Dublin. Against that, the party had a desperate European election and may end up with the same net result as 2014, with one MEP in the South, zero in Midlands North West, and a guy wearing the number 16 geansaí and sitting on the subs bench in Dublin.
Labour did make modest gains in the locals but did not really feature in the shake-up of any European constituency. Perhaps the Greens sucked some oxygen from it, but every party could say that.
Solidarity/People Before Profit also experienced an electoral setback for the first time in a long time, seeing its representation fall back from 24 to 11. It’s hard to identify the exact reasons. Again its messaging might not carry the same resonance as 2014, and its oppositionist approach to most things (including climate taxes) might be counterproductive.
And the big winners?
Well the Greens obviously. But so too the Social Democrats. The Greens wanted to double their number of local seats and won 49, a quadrupling. They also look like winning at least one, and probably two, seats in Europe.
Its candidate Saoirse McHugh also provided the moment of the campaign.
The party has now a biddable chance of winning a double-digit number of seats in the next general election. The Greens’ success, however, was not quite as gilded as that suggested by the RTÉ/TG4 exit poll, which overestimated their results and underestimated others.
Fianna Fáil's Darragh O'Brien has called for an official investigation.
As Tim O’Brien reports, the Fianna Fáíl housing spokesman said the poll “drove the news agenda like it was gospel”, but in fact it had overestimated support for Green Party candidate Ciarán Cuffe by six points and put support for Fianna Fail at 23 per cent, when it should have been 27 per cent.
Maybe it’s too complicated asking people how they voted when there were two elections, a referendum and a plebiscite involved.
The other winners, almost by stealth, were the Social Democrats. They have won at least 18 seats and in some new places like Kildare, Galway city and west Cork. It represented a good first outing in the locals for a fledgling party.
So what is the state of play?
With nine of the 949 seats to fill Fianna Fáil remains the biggest party at local level with 276 seats, followed by Fine Gael at 251. Sinn Féin has 81 seats; Labour has 56; with the Green Party on 49. The Social Democrats have 18; S/PBP has 11 and there are 198 independents.
In the Europeans it looks like South and Midlands North West will go on until Wednesday and, perhaps, Thursday. Dublin looked like it would be a wrap last night, but then a problem arose over the order of candidates.
Whoever finishes fourth will have to sit on the subs bench until Brexit happens (the European Council will not allow Ireland use two of its 13 seats while the UK is still in the Union).
Clare Daly was running about 4,000 votes behind Barry Andrews last night as Garry Gannon’s (SD) 26,000 votes were being distributed. His transfers might close the gap between them, but if it did not, Daly wanted the count to proceed as if the constituency was still the old three-seater.
In other words she wanted Sinn Féin MEP Lynn Boylan’s transfers to be distributed after her elimination. That would surely have allowed her leapfrog Andrews into third position.
But the legal position seems to be it is a four-seat constituency and will be treated as that. Therefore there will be no point in distributing Boylan’s vote as by that stage she is eliminated and there are only four candidates left. And that’s the order they are elected.
In other words, if Andrews is ahead at that stage he will be deemed to be the third person elected, with Daly as the non-MEP MEP.
The same row seems to be brewing in the South where there seems to be a scrum between four candidates for the last three spots. Mick Wallace is in pole position but only marginally ahead of Grace O’Sullivan, Liadh Ní Riada and Deirdre Clune.
In Midlands North West, it’s not an issue. I just think Maria Walsh is a little too far ahead for Peter Casey to catch up with her, although it’s nigh impossible to predict where transfers will go
How do you solve a problem like Maria?
The most read article on The Irish Times website today is the transcript of the Maria Bailey interview on Sean O'Rourke's Today programme yesterday.
It was grimace-inducing. She did herself no favours, showed no humility or remorse and presented herself as the victim. She also refused to say what happened and had to correct part of her claim.
Her Fine Gael ministerial colleagues did not exactly come sprinting to her support. Simon Harris and Regina Doherty both chastised her for doing the car-crash interview. The interview was another “look-no-hands” escapade. They never end well.
And now, as Jack Horgan-Jones is reporting, the Dean Hotelis querying some aspects of her account of what happened.
As Jennifer Bray reports there is now pressure on her to step down as chair of the Oireachtas housing committee.
Best reads
Miriam Lord on the most famous swing in Ireland. Her closing paragraphs are classic: "The Sultana of Swing left the radio centre in the company of PR man Paul Allen. Watching them on the news leaving RTÉ, the words of Fr Ted after the disastrous visit of three bishops to Craggy Island came to mind: "Went pretty well, I thought."
Fiach Kelly analyses the possible timing of the next general election.
Kevin O'Sullivan on the long-term work that has gone into the Green Party's success.
Pat Leahy spoke yesterday to Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon in Dublin, where she spoke about Brexit and the European elections.
A Q&A from me looking at what the Green Party might seek if in the next government.
Playbook
A small number of local authorities have yet to declare final seats, mainly because of recounts. Counting in South and Midlands North West continues at a snail’s pace. Dublin counting has been suspended until this morning over a dispute between candidates on how many counts are needed.
The Cabinet met last night as the Taoiseach is travelling to Brussels today for a series of meetings, including a sitting of the European Council. The Taoiseach will also attend a statutory summit of the EPP.
Dáil
14.00: Leaders’ Questions.
14.32: Order of Business.
15.02: Parliamentary Questions with Minister for Children and Youth Affairs Katherine Zappone.
17.20: A number of Bills are before the House for debate including the Health and Social Care Professionals (Amendment) Bill 2018 and the rainy day fund otherwise known as the National Surplus (Reserve Fund for Exceptional Contingencies) Bill 2018.
20.00 The Rural Independent Group have a Private Members’ motion on Vulture Funds.
22.00: Dáil adjourns.
Seanad
4.30: Commencement Matters.
15.30: Order of Business.
16.45: Judicial Appointments Commission Bill 2017. Committee Stage (resumed). Has the debate in the Seanad reached 100 hours yet? Almost.
19.00: Health Service Executive (Governance) Bill 2018.
Committees
13.00: The Committee on Children and Youth Affairs looks at the recruitment and retention of social workers.
13.30: The Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach CR3, LH 2000. Matters relating to the banking sector.
14.00: Special Select Seanad Committee on the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union CR4, LH 2000 (private meeting).
15.30: Joint Committee on Agriculture, Food and the Marine CR1, LH 2000.
The Future of the Beef Sector in the context of Food Wise 2025 (resumed), featuring representatives from Teagasc.
Consideration of the Unfair Trading Practices (UTP) directive, with representatives from Competition and Consumer Protection Commission attending.
The Future of the Beef Sector in the context of Food Wise 2025 (resumed), with representatives from Competition and Consumer Protection Commission.
16.00: Joint Committee on Business, Enterprise and Innovation CR4, LH 2000.
Draft Sectoral Employment Order (Electrical Contracting Sector) 2019.
Pat Breen, Minister of State at the Department of Business, Enterprise and Innovation, the Department of Employment and Social Protection, the Department of the Taoiseach and the Department of Justice and Equality with special responsibility for Trade, Employment, Business, EU Digital Single Market and Data Protection.
Engagement with Prof Peter Clinch, chairman designate, Science Foundation Ireland.
16.00: Select Committee on Budgetary Oversight CR3, LH 2000.
The National Broadband Plan: consideration of impact on budget and capital expenditure programme, with Paschal Donohoe, Minister for Finance and Public Expenditure and Reform.
Scrutiny of Review of Local Property Tax: report of the Inter-Departmental Group - March 2019, with representatives from Local Property Tax Review Group.
