Today's Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll sets the scene for Election 2020. Interviewing for this latest poll took place between Thursday and Saturday of last week, beginning just two days after the Taoiseach called the election and taking in the initial days of campaigning by political parties.
Our poll was carried out face to face and in homes among a nationally representative sample of 1,200 adults aged 18+, covering 120 sampling points across all constituencies in the Republic of Ireland.
Fianna Fáil registers the highest support level in today's poll at 25 per cent, followed by Fine Gael at 23 per cent, Sinn Féin at 21 per cent and Independents/Others at 18 per cent.
Support for the Green Party is at 8 per cent, followed by the Labour Party on 5 per cent.
The relatively slender margin (of four points) that separates the three most popular parties – Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin – represents a striking convergence in party support, mirroring the landscape of 2014 when these three parties were similarly clustered.
With 25 per cent support, unchanged since our last poll in October, Fianna Fáil is in pole position and two points ahead of Fine Gael. While this lead is not statistically significant, Fianna Fáil begins its general election campaign with a level of support that has held more or less constant for the past two years and is one point ahead of their 2016 general election performance.
In contrast, support for Fine Gael, at 23 per cent, has declined by six points in today’s poll and is three points lower than the party achieved in the last general election.
Sinn Féin is the only party to record a significant jump in support in today's poll, up by seven points to 21 per cent
Declines in support were recorded across all demographic groupings with the exception of 35-49-year-olds, among whom Fine Gael managed to maintain support at 29 per cent. The largest declines in support were recorded among farmers, down from 45 per cent to 25 per cent, and also among 18-24-year-olds, dropping 15 points (from 31 per cent to 16 per cent).
Sinn Féin is the only party to record a significant jump in support in today's poll, up by seven points to 21 per cent. Support for the party has increased across all cohorts, with the largest gains recorded in Connacht/Ulster (up 12 points to 26 per cent), among women (up 10 points to 20 per cent) and among younger voters (up 10 points to 27 per cent). The party begins its election campaign seven points ahead of its 2016 general election result.
Today's poll shows support for the Green Party at 8 per cent, unchanged since our last poll in October and five points ahead of their performance in general election 2016. Support for the Greens is highest among middle-class voters (at 18 per cent), those in living in Dublin (at 15 per cent) and 18-24s (15 per cent).
Support for the Labour Party is down, albeit marginally by one point (to 5 per cent) and is two points lower than the party recorded in the 2016 election. Vote share for the party is highest in Dublin (at 8 per cent) and Rest of Leinster (at 7 per cent).
Support for Independents/Others has held steady at 18 per cent but is considerably behind the 27 per cent achieved by this grouping in the last election.
Today’s poll gives us the position of each of the parties on the Election 2020 starting grid. With just under three weeks of campaigning yet to come, we can expect many twists and turns before the winner is crowned, although it will take, in all probability, a while longer before a government is formed. Aisling Corcoran is a director of Ipsos MRBI
