The political temperature over the future of the National Maternity Hospital (NMH) continues to rise – and has now entered into a rolling boil that will last for at least a week – with the constant threat of spilling over.
The decision last week to kick for touch appears to have been made on the presumption that doing so in the name of transparency would bring people with them. But the Government doesn’t seem to have identified a fallback position beyond turning up the volume – and it is now on the defensive in a polarising and volatile situation.
Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly is before the Oireachtas health committee this morning, where he must put on a performance. His commitment to the project has been full-throated – this is unsurprising, given his commitment to women's health as a core part of his political programme. Equally pressing is his need to nail down a tangible political win before reshuffle talk begins in earnest over the summer.
A full-court press by Government is under way – most visibly by Donnelly and the Taoiseach – to get the deal over the line.
The Minister spent much of last weekend engaging with people on Twitter, answering their questions and projecting assurance on the deal. On Monday, the Taoiseach doubled down on Morning Ireland, followed by Donnelly on the News at One.
The two-week pause was in the name of transparency, but the language from the two men began edging towards the combative. Micheál Martin said concerns over the ownership of the site were a “red herring”; Donnelly said “we’ve been talking about it for too damn long”.
This was followed by a shaky radio outing from NMH deputy chairman Pat McCann and a remarkably tetchy performance from the Taoiseach during Leaders' Questions on Tuesday. Martin, who was unusually flanked by Donnelly, dismissed the Opposition arguments as "nonsense" and called for "honesty" in the debate. He apparently was just off a tense phone call with Boris Johnson – maybe that explains the mood.
Nonetheless, the campaign appears to be winning over doubters at Cabinet: Helen McEntee has endorsed it, following sign-off from Leo Varadkar on Tuesday's News at One. Ditto Heather Humphreys and Hildegarde Naughton. However, Catherine Martin, the Greens' deputy leader, remains a floating voter, sounding non-committal after Cabinet on Tuesday.
The problem the Government faces is not so much nailing down marquee names at Cabinet, it's winning the ground war. Facing an energetic grassroots campaign and unanimity on the Opposition benches, the risk is that uncertainty spreads among coalition footsoldiers. This is not helped by seemingly parallel and irreconcilable views on what the same texts mean, held by credible actors on both sides. The reiteration of the concerns of two eminent Health Service Executive board members opposed to the deal on Tuesday evening has added more fuel to the fire.
In the absence of anything approaching a consensus – even a row over agreed facts is preferable to confusion – politicians get nervous.
Donnelly has been continuing the offensive behind the scenes, meeting Fine Gael and Green Party parliamentarians on Tuesday, but the reaction has been mixed. As Jennifer Bray reports, he was met with mutters from Fine Gael that it might be an idea to stall it from going to Cabinet again. That, if it came to pass, would provoke a real credibility problem for the Government and the Minister.
The most likely outcome is still that a proposal will be brought to Cabinet next week and receive sign-off. The Government’s stated line is that the deal is there to be explained, but its contents are not up for debate – departing from that would be a real moment of political weakness. There are dangerous undercurrents at the moment on an increasingly volatile topic.
Jennifer's front-page story is here. And her explainer is here.
Our lead today is on the UK toning down its plan for a Troubles amnesty.
And the front page is completed by Paul Cullen's report on worsening emergency department delays.
Best reads
Arthur Beesley analyses the backdrop to the Paul Hyde case, where terms of reference are due for an examination of his actions.
Miriam Lord's take on the Dáil fallout from the NMH controversy is here.
Denis Staunton on Boris Johnson's "episodic credibility problems".
Kathy Sheridan has a forceful piece on gender and politics in Northern Ireland.
Playbook
Committees
The main event for the first half of the day is at the health committee, as mentioned above. Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly is up at 9.30am. Elsewhere at the same time, the enterprise committee is hearing arguments on the waiver of IP rights relating to Covid vaccines.
The culture and sports committee is hearing on abuse directed towards those involved in sport, before a roundtable discussion on Irish participation in the Creative Europe programme.
Paschal Donohoe is in front of the finance committee at 1.30pm to discuss the Consumer Credit (Amendment) Bill; later in the day Minister of State Sean Fleming will appear as part of committee -stage consideration of the Insurance (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill
The transport and communications committee is holding a discussion on the Irish Coast Guard at the same time, before the European affairs committee launches a report on its travel to Moldova and Romania last month, where they observed those countries' responses to the refugee crisis.
The budgetary oversight committee meets at 5.30pm for a discussion on recent cost-of-living measures.
Dáil
The Labour Party's Living Wage Bill will be debated during Private Members' Business in the Dáil at 10am, after topical issues opens the day's business. Leaders' Questions with Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats, the Regional Group and the Independent Group is at midday, followed by questions on policy or legislation and Taoiseach's Questions at 1.05pm.
Government business will see statements on the report of the review of the Defamation Act, and two other motions from the Department of Justice on opt-ins on data exchange and insolvency regulation and EU decisions in relation to the Kyoto Declaration.
At 6pm, the Consumer Rights Bill will get its second stage outing, before weekly divisions in the evening.
Seanad
In the Seanad there will be statements to mark Europe Day at 12.45pm, followed by the committee and remaining stages of the Garda Síochána (Compensation) Bill.
The committee stage of the Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill resumes at 4.30pm.
Sinn Féin Senators will bring a motion during Private Members’ Business to oppose a of House of Lords Amendment to the UK’s Nationality and Borders Bill.
