After the most significant week in the path to Brexit since the United Kingdom referendum vote last June, preparations for a possible hard Border on the island of Ireland have assumed a new urgency.
Irish and British officials have been exploring how a new Border would work and what mechanisms will make it – in the words of British prime minister Theresa May last week – as “frictionless” as possible.
May’s speech made it clear that the period of hoping there would little or no change to the Border is over. The British are unambiguously going out of the single market. The determination to agree a raft of new trade deals with other countries means that the UK must leave the customs union too, though May suggested that some form of association agreement on customs was possible.
The reaction from EU members suggests that even if this is possible, it is unlikely to feature tariff-free access to the EU. Even the Irish Government is on message for that, as evidenced by Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan’s speech to EU diplomats in Dublin yesterday. Being outside the union, he said, could not be as advantageous as being inside it.
There’s a long way before any deal with the UK is finalised, but that means that Irish goods are facing the prospect of tariffs when they enter the UK market. On Thursday, officials from the Department of Finance told the Oireachtas finance committee what that might look like.
In a worst-case scenario, where there is no free trade agreement and trade between the UK and the EU reverts to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, Irish meat exports would face tariffs of 50 per cent when entering the UK market.
New reality
It may not get as bad as that. A free trade agreement may reduce or eliminate most or all tariffs. But what May’s speech – and the reactions to it – suggest is that the likelihood of this has diminished. What was once thought of as planning for an unlikely worst case has assumed a new and immediate reality.
Irish officials have been looking at what a new Border would mean since before the Brexit vote, and there has been a great deal of contact between relevant agencies in Dublin and the UK since last summer.
Both sides are reluctant to divulge the details on the discussions because the EU is adamant that no “negotiations” can take place with the British until after article 50 is triggered.
Yesterday in Davos, the European Commissioner for economic affairs, taxation and customs Pierre Moscovici told RTÉ: “There can be no discussion about customs as long as the UK is a member of the EU.”
In fact, discussions between Ireland the UK are happening, with sources saying they have intensified in the last month. They are not negotiations, as they cannot agree anything, sources say. However, they are considering how various models might work. Given the events of the last week, that process will certainly intensify.
There are essentially two “borders”: a security and immigration border and a customs border. There is already a great deal of co-operation between the security and immigration authorities of the two countries, and that will continue and intensify.
Special arrangement
However, even the hardest of hard Brexiteers in the UK do not anticipate that EU member states will require visas to enter post-Brexit Britain, so the idea that Europeans will be turned back at British airports and ports is a far-fetched one. But they will not be automatically entitled to work, access benefits or avail of public services.
Whether Ireland can secure a special arrangement exempting it from this is one the main challenges facing the Government. Whatever happens, the sharing of security and immigration information between the two administrations is likely to be significantly enhanced.
A customs border is now increasingly likely, and it is this issue which Irish and British officials have been discussing.
Irish officials have also held meetings with the European Commission in Brussels. Official sources say that rather than a hard Border, an electronic border which logs freight traffic on North-South routes is more likely to be introduced. Representatives of the Irish agencies have visited European countries where such arrangements are already in place.
This week in Davos, Taoiseach Enda Kenny said officials were working on proposals to minimise customs checks. It was an implicit admission that the Border is coming back, in some form.
May is expected to visit Dublin next week for talks with the Taoiseach. She has said repeatedly that there should be no return to the borders of the past. Instead, the talk will turn to the borders of the future.
