The slump in public confidence in the Government and its leaders’ management of the pandemic is perhaps not surprising given the recent third wave of the virus and the havoc it has wreaked upon the country. But it makes for a sharp warning for the coalition about its political fate if they fail to regain the public’s confidence.
At present that means meeting the vaccination targets laid out by the Taoiseach on Tuesday evening. It’s hard to escape the conclusion that the fate of the Government, and its constituent parts, rests on the vaccination programme.
The overall picture of Irish politics painted by Wednesday's numbers suggests that the trends that have manifested themselves since last year's election are continuing. A year ago, Sinn Féin arrived as one of the big three parties, running close to a tie with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Since the formation of the Government, that has looked more like a big two, with Fianna Fáil support falling some way behind the other two. That is very much the story today.
It should be said Varadkar is comfortably the most popular among the party leaders
Fianna Fáil’s three-point drop is smaller than Fine Gael’s five-drop decline but for Micheál Martin, it is more worrying. It approaches the level where the incessant murmuring in his parliamentary party might become more than that.
With “core” support – ie, before the undecided voters are excluded – of just 10 per cent, Fianna Fáil’s die-hard voters number less than half of the others. Core support for Fine Gael and Sinn Féin is 22 per cent each.
Martin’s own numbers offer little solace. While his personal satisfaction rating actually rises marginally – and, at 42 per cent, is healthy enough by the usual standards of the measurement – confidence in his management of the pandemic is heavily in negative territory, with 39 per cent of respondents saying he was doing a good job, against 56 who say he’s not.
The geographical and demographic breakdowns contain further warnings. Though these figures are drawn from a smaller base and therefore should be treated as indicative rather than absolute, one figure will stand out for many Fianna Fáilers: 8 per cent in Dublin. Danger here.
Fine Gael sees its numbers tumble, too. Party support slumps by five points to 30 per cent, though the 35 per cent it achieved in last October’s poll was unusually high, so this may represent at least partly a natural correction.
The satisfaction rating for party leader and Tánaiste Leo Varadkar tumbles by a hefty 13 points – but this also comes from a high base established last year when public approval for the then outgoing government's management of the first wave of the pandemic propelled its leader to stratospheric levels of personal popularity. It couldn't last, and it didn't. Though it should be said Varadkar is comfortably the most popular among the party leaders.
Loss of confidence
Poll data doesn’t explain in itself why party supports changes, but the obvious explanation seems unavoidable: a chunk of the public, previously supportive, has lost confidence in the Government’s management of the pandemic, and deserted Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael politically. Covid appears to be driving the political currents in this poll, at least as far as the Government is concerned.
Leading the country out of the pandemic in the coming months might not guarantee and political resurgence for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael; as Brexit shows, managing a national crisis successfully is no guarantee of a payoff at the ballot box. But failure to lead the country through it would almost certainly inflict substantial – and potentially fatal – political damage on the two old rivals-turned-allies.
Four further points of significance may be noted from today’s numbers.
The first is the poll represents a mini-revival for the Green Party. The Greens have been experiencing their difficulties in Government, but they have escaped the responsibility laid at the door of their larger coalition partners for failures in managing the pandemic. Party support creeps back up to 6 per cent, almost at the seven the party won at last year's general election.
If Sinn Féin has reached a plateau, however, it is at a high altitude
Eamon Ryan sees his personal rating jump by eight points, though October saw it collapse by 13. Still, it's progress, and suggests to the Green Party that its destruction after entering government is not a foregone conclusion. Likely, perhaps, but not inevitable.
Secondly, one thing sticks out like a sore thumb in today’s numbers: despite the falls in support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and their leaders, there’s no bump for Sinn Féin. There are marginal, statistically insignificant declines for the party (from 29 to 28 per cent) and for Mary Lou McDonald (46 to 45 per cent) but we might have expected that when the main Government parties suffer, the main Opposition party would prosper. No so, it seems.
Plateau
Sinn Féin is polling consistently strongly since the last election, representing an important consolidation of the new support it won last year. But today’s poll confirms the trends of the second half of last year: there is a limit, it seems, to the march of the party. If Sinn Féin has reached a plateau, however, it is at a high altitude.
The third point to note is the enduring strength of Independents in Irish politics. They see support increase by five points today, to 13 per cent: nearly as high as Fianna Fáil.
Finally, among the small parties, Labour, the Social Democrats and Solidarity-People Before Profit are trucking along, a point up or a point down from poll to poll.
It might be observed that all three do very well in terms of media profile and political impact for parties which command pretty low levels of support; something which is especially true of Solidarity-People Before Profit, which continues to register at just 1 per cent support nationally. A combination of able TDs and a distinctive message means that they continue to punch above their weight.
