Part of politics always takes place in the shadows, and Leo Varadkar has been an able and enthusiastic practitioner of those arts.
His rise to the very top of Irish politics despite his relative youth has been eased by his ability to play a complex and multidimensional game involving friends, opponents, the media and the public, all with the objective of promoting him, his party and his political interests.
Journalists cannot reasonably be expected to decry politicians for leaking or for privately briefing them, but it is only fair to report that many of Varadkar’s colleagues and foes alike have regarded him as too close to the media, too gossipy, too loose. This perception has often damaged trust between Varadkar and his colleagues. It has damaged trust at the centre of this Government and its predecessors.
The case against Varadkar is substantial. He sought a highly sensitive document that was part of an ongoing negotiation, although that negotiation seems to have been substantially concluded by the time of the leak. He passed this to a friend, specifically warning that it was confidential and subject to further changes. More than one of Varadkar’s colleagues say that if they had been caught doing what he has done, they would be sacked.
The defence is broad, but thin in parts. He says he was seeking to secure agreement from doctors outside the IMO but, if so, it was a solo run unknown to the Department of Health. In addition, the response from the NAGP, the other doctors' group that was run by his friend Maitiú Ó Tuathail, makes clear that their principal interest was in securing advantage over their rivals in the IMO.
It is true that the deal was substantially agreed at that stage. It is also true that it was not finally concluded and that requests from opposition politicians for publication of the exact terms of the deal had been rebuffed.
Official Secrets Act
Claims that Varadkar may have violated the Official Secrets Act may be a bit overblown. But his defence – that as head of government anything he did was by definition authorised – is unlikely to be well received politically. US president Donald Trump is also fond of employing it; one political source was describing it as "Leo's Trump defence" this weekend.
Varadkar will face a very difficult few days ahead. But ultimately he is likely to survive provided two conditions are fulfilled. Firstly, if there is any evidence that Varadkar broke any laws – suggested by Village magazine but strongly rebutted by the now Tánaiste – then the context changes significantly. Secondly, if it can be demonstrated that there was any commercial advantage deriving directly to Ó Tuathail’s organisation as a result of the leak, things will immediately get sticky for Varadkar.
In the absence of either of these two conditions, though, Varadkar is likely to remain part of the Government but will suffer significant political damage. That damage will be both personal to him and general to his party and the Government.
Personally, the affair will significantly diminish trust in Varadkar on the part of his fellow Ministers – who now have to go out publicly and defend him while privately seething at him – and his officials.
Access to power
In addition, while he cannot be responsible for the way Ó Tuathail traded on his access to the taoiseach, he is responsible for his choice of friends. Ó Tuathail’s actions and attitudes, captured in the revealing messages boasting of his access (“To be fair. Leo always delivers”), and knowledge of the then taoiseach’s views (“Leo literally couldn’t give a f*** about refugees”) do not speak well of Varadkar’s judgment. The messages will stick in people’s minds long after they have forgotten about contractual negotiations with doctors’ representatives.
Fine Gael and the Government will also be damaged by this episode, even if it does not escalate to the point of threatening his future in office. It shows that ministers and those in power are in positions to help their friends, and they sometimes do.
The golden circle. Insiders versus outsiders. Us against them. Varadkar has just taken one of the most powerful political tropes of the age and turned it, once again, on his own Government.
