The good news for the Coalition according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll is that Fine Gael is on course to put in a strong performance in a spring general election but the bad news is that the Labour Party is still in the doldrums.
On 30 per cent, Fine Gael is in exactly the same position it was in less than three months before the last election in February 2011. Between the Irish Times poll in the first week of December 2010 and the election on February 25th, 2011, the party put on another six points to end up with 36 per cent of the vote and 76 of the 166 Dáil seats.
If it can repeat the performance and make similar gains during the forthcoming campaign Fine Gael will be in an unassailable position to lead the next government.
When the poll is broken down in regional terms it appears Fine Gael has made significant gains in Dublin since the last poll and is now on 32 per cent in the capital, compared with 19 per cent in September. The party is on 30 per cent in the rest of Leinster and Connacht-Ulster and is on 27 per cent in Munster.
It is easily the leading party among the best-off AB voters and also has a lead in the other social categories except the poorest – DE – voters.
Massive support from farmers
In age terms, Fine Gael does best among the over-65s, where it gets 40 per cent. Its weak point is among the younger age groups from 18-34, while its strong point is the massive support it gets among farmers, with almost half of them backing the party.
Enda Kenny’s improved satisfaction rating is another positive for Fine Gael with the revival in the rating of the Government being significant.
The Government’s rating of 34 per cent is now at its highest level since October 2011 and represents a huge turnaround since last December, when it had sunk to 17 per cent.
However. this does not appear to have benefited the Labour Party, which has declined by a point to 7 per cent. The party is on 8 per cent in Munster, 6 per cent in the rest of Leinster and 2 per cent in Connacht-Ulster.
In class terms Labour is now strongest among the middle- class C1 group and it does reasonably well among the better-off ABs. It is struggling among the poorer C2 and DE categories.
Fianna Fáil has declined marginally since the last poll and the one-point change is within the margin of error. The party will be disappointed, though, not to have held its position ahead of Sinn Féin.
Of real concern for Fianna Fáil is that its vote in Dublin is now just 10 per cent. Unless that vote is concentrated in a number of constituencies the party will struggle to win seats in the capital, where it is now without a single TD.
The party is in better shape outside Dublin, on 25 per cent in Connacht-Ulster, 23 per cent in the rest of Leinster and 21 per cent in Munster.
It is strongest among the over-65s and weakest among the 25-34-year-olds. In social class terms it is weakest among middle-class voters and strongest among working-class voters and farmers.
Support for Sinn Féin is back up to 21 per cent with the party’s vote evenly spread across the country. It is on 23 per cent in Connacht-Ulster, 22 per cent in Munster, 21 per cent in Dublin and 20 per cent in the rest of Leinster. There remains a wide difference in support levels across the social classes, with the party getting 10 per cent among AB voters and 32 per cent among DE voters.
In age terms the party is strongest among the youngest voters but is making inroads among the middle-aged. It is weakest among the over-65s.
Support for Independents and smaller parties has dropped by two points. This category does best in Dublin, where 23 per cent of voters say they will vote for smaller parties or Independents, although there is a wide variation in the parties those polled say they will support
Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit comes out as the most significant element of Independent/Others in Dublin at 5 per cent, followed by Shane Ross’s Independent Alliance on 4 per cent, the Social Democrats at 3 per cent and Renua on 1 per cent. The Greens are at 3 per cent in Dublin.
Other regions are not as strongly Independent, with 22 per cent of voters in Munster and Connacht-Ulster supporting the group and 19 per cent in the rest of Leinster.
Even spread
There is a relatively even spread across the age cohorts and social classes, indicating that the next Dáil is likely to have the biggest number of Independents and small-party representatives in the history of the State.
On the issue of coalition, voters were asked which party group they would least like to see their preferred party going into government with.
Of the major parties, Sinn Féin was the most coalition-repellant, with 37 per cent of the electorate saying they would least like it in coalition. Fine Gael came next with 18 per cent ruling it out as partners. Among Fianna Fáil voters 42 per cent gave Sinn Féin as their least preferred coalition partner, while 22 per cent put Fine Gael in that category.
