Fianna Fáil is back on top in this latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, taking a three-point lead over Fine Gael. Fianna Fáil, on 30 per cent, has jumped four points, with Fine Gael one point higher on 27 per cent.

Sinn Féin has fallen back to 17 per cent, a drop of two points. Labour are up one point to 6 per cent. Independents/Others have drifted back to 20 per cent, losing four points since our October poll and 10 points off their general election performance in February.

It has been a tough couple of months for the Government since the last Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll. In the interim a long queue has formed outside the office of Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Paschal Donohoe and economic storm clouds are beginning to gather on the horizon.

Arguably, the current Government is not on firm enough ground to withstand the pressure of public sector pay demands. It remains to be seen how affordable a renegotiation of the Lansdowne Road Agreement is.

Politically, uncertainties are being piled upon uncertainties. Brexit remains the greatest unknown, but a change of administration in the US and shifting sands throughout Europe are making politicians and the public anxious.

Rather than being won, arguments are being avoided. For the time being, gardaí and the ASTI have been appeased, a potentially divisive debate on how to deal with the Eighth Amendment has been put off until 2018, and it will be next year before a decision is made on water charges.

As a strategy, it seems to be working. Satisfaction with the performance of the Government is up five points, to 34 per cent.

It looks like Fine Gael will end 2016 in relatively good shape. On 27 per cent in this latest poll, Fine Gael has notched up another point and will finish the year ahead, albeit marginally, of its February general election result.

Popular vote

That said, Fine Gael will be disappointed to have surrendered their popular vote throne to their rivals. Fianna Fáil has benefited from a drift away from Sinn Féin and Independents/Others, jumping four points to 30 per cent.

Among those aged 65 years or older the party registers 40 per cent support – the collapse is now water under the bridge for the older generation, it seems. No great surprise some would like to see Bertie Ahern back.

The October budget had a little something for everyone, except it seems Sinn Féin and Independents/Others which have seen their numbers decline since October, down a combined six points. Both groups gained in popularity during the recession so, as could have been predicted, a reasonably well-received budget did nothing to strengthen their hands.

Support for Independents/Others has fallen back four points. For the most part, the drop is among Independents who do not belong to one of the better known parties or groupings, the one exception being Shane Ross’s Independent Alliance which is marginally lower in this poll (down one point to 2 per cent). Other parties and groupings have held steady (Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit on 3 per cent; Green Party on 3 per cent; Social Democrats on 2 per cent; and Independents4Change on 2 per cent ).

Being a minority voice in government did not work out well in the end for the Progressive Democrats, the Greens or Labour. Will it end any differently for the Independents who have chosen to go into Government? Indeed, it is entirely possible that the participation in Government of some Independents has implications for how all Independents are perceived.

Drifted lower

Sinn Féin has also drifted lower in the polls over the past year. From having rarely been out of the 20s between 2013 and 2015, the party failed to poll above 20 per cent in 2016.

For Labour, a gain of one point (to 6 per cent) is an encouraging sign if not a substantial increase. For the first time this year their rating has moved in the right direction.

We have entered this era of new politics not by choice but by design and until one party is given a clear mandate to lead, “new politics” is here to stay. So what are the prospects of one party breaking away from the pack?

Fine Gael managed to build up a head of steam in 2011 after Fianna Fáil had fallen out of favour, but the indications are now that Fine Gael is reaching something of a ceiling in polling terms. With Fianna Fáil resurgent, Fine Gael can no longer rely on disaffected Fianna Fáil voters to swell its ranks.

It is interesting to note that not since the early 80s have both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil polled in excess of 30 per cent in an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, with the exception of November 2008 when the onset of a crisis caused their paths to cross (Fine Gael on the way up, Fianna Fáil on the way down).

If there is only room for one of the establishment parties to win a strong mandate, history shows Fianna Fáil is better positioned to achieve this feat. The party’s positioning is also more central giving it room to grow to the left and to the right. This is perhaps unlikely to happen in the short term, so “new politics” may be with us for a while yet.

Let us end the 2016 polling series on a positive note by acknowledging the upside of new politics. The leaders of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are being recognised for showing leadership, with satisfaction levels for Enda Kenny (up seven to 36 per cent) and Micheál Martin (down one to 38 per cent) noticeably higher than they were before the general election. Maybe there are votes in doing the right thing, or at least applause.

Damian Loscher is the managing director of Ipsos MRBI