A border for people and goods on the island of Ireland is inevitable if the UK leaves the customs union, EU agriculture commissioner Phil Hogan has said.
Speaking to the Association of European Journalists in Dublin, Mr Hogan said it was clear that if the British government adhered to its current position of leaving the customs union and the single European market, a border could not be avoided.
“There is an inevitability about a border on the island of Ireland if the current position of the UK government does not change,” said Mr Hogan.
He said the commitment to avoid a hard border, which was agreed in the first phase of talks between the EU and the UK, was welcome, but the really tough negotiations have yet to come. “Phase one of the talks was like the National League, but the Championship is just about to start. That will be the decider.”
He said the Irish Government and the business sector needed to prepare for the worst while hoping that it would not happen.
Mr Hogan said he did not think there was any prospect of the UK moving back from the decision to leave the EU regardless of who was in government in London.
"I think Brexit is going to happen one way or another. Having struck out on that road I don't believe there is any way back. Maybe in 20 years they will see what they are missing and ask to come back."
He expressed the view that even if there was a general election in the UK before the completion of negotiations on Brexit, there was little likelihood of a change of mind on the fundamental decision to leave.
Instability
"Jeremy Corbyn may not propose leaving in as hard a fashion as the Tories, but I don't see how he can row back on the decision to leave," said Mr Hogan.
He said the problem for Ireland and the rest of the EU was the level of unpredictability and instability created by the confusion in the British political system about what precisely was meant by Brexit.
"Henry Kissinger reputedly asked about who Washington should call if the US wanted to find out what the EU position was on any major issue. The EU now has the problem about who to call in order to find out what the position is in London."
Responding to questions about the impact on Brexit on Northern Ireland, Mr Hogan said it was very disappointing that there was no executive in Belfast with which the EU Commission could engage.
