The survival of the Government will be in doubt if Fianna Fáil opens up a greater opinion poll lead over Fine Gael, Government chief whip Regina Doherty has said.
Ms Doherty said there would be “no reason” for Fianna Fáil to stick to the confidence and supply agreement for its three-year duration if the party’s popularity continues to improve.
Fine Gael, she suggested should be concerned if the gap between the two parties stretches to five points. The most recent Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll from December had Fianna Fáil on 30 per cent and Fine Gael on 27 per cent.
Fianna Fáil, she believed, is already questioning trust in the confidence and supply deal – which has led some Ministers to accelerate plans to get as much work done as possible in case the Government collapses.
Saying that she was “not having a dig at Fianna Fáil”, she acknowledged that Fine Gael should be worried if opinion polls had Micheál Martin’s party leading by, for example, 32 per cent to 27 per cent.
New year instability
“If Fianna Fáil continue to go up in the polls, there is no reason for them to stick to the agreement for three years,” said the Meath TD, who warned that water charges and the Eighth Amendment could cause new year instability.
However, the current Dáil arrangement could continue for three years if Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil remain relatively close to each other in the polls: “[Then] we will last for as long as we will last.”
Ministers recognise the pressure created by the Dáil arithmetic: “There is a real impetus to address those issues as forcefully and as early as you can because you mightn’t be around this time next year.”
Saying that the timing of Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s departure from office is entirely a matter for himself, Ms Doherty accepted that the concerns of those who want him to go quickly are honestly held.
“I think the concerns that have been raised by people are sincere and genuine. I don’t think anyone is raising them to cause trouble or any of that business.”
However, the concerns that Fine Gael would “on the back foot” have been “allayed”, she said, because there there “ was a deal done” during the government negotiations to have an accelerated leadership battle if there is a snap election.
However, one of the leading candidates, Minister for Housing Simon Coveney said last month that a leadership contest must be decided by the full party membership, not just by TDs and Senators.
