There is likely to be considerable distress on Fine Gael backbenches arising from election performances that were rescued from disaster by the party winning two European Parliament seats in Ireland South and retaining its Dáil seat in Longford-Westmeath. Scorched earth was everywhere as Independent candidates and Sinn Féin harvested protest votes and Fianna Fáil re-emerged as the largest local authority party. In the Taoiseach's home town of Castlebar, party support dropped by 10 points and his brother, Henry, struggled to take the last council seat.
In the normal course of events, these results could be expected to generate calls for Mr Kenny's resignation. But these are not normal times. The political establishment has been distracted by an even worse performance by the Labour Party and the resignation of Eamon Gilmore as party leader. His successor will be appointed in early July, followed by a Cabinet reshuffle, the nomination of an EU Commissioner and discussion on modifications to the Programme for Government. Only then will worried backbenchers be in a position to assess their own and their party's prospects.
As of now, the Taoiseach remains untouchable. The imperative for TDs is to avoid a general election. That holds true for Fine Gael and Labour. Local elections provided a stark warning against doing anything rash. Voter dissatisfaction arising from cutbacks and taxes may have been temporarily assuaged, but it is unlikely to have dissipated. As Mr Kenny told European leaders in Brussels: the Irish people are worn out by measures taken to repair the economy and bank debt relief is needed.
All of this will take time. But pressure for generational change at the top will cause dislocation at Cabinet level and may have knock-on effects elsewhere. Mid-summer talks between Coalition parties on a revised economic agenda; an acceleration of administrative reforms and the establishment of strict accountability – with consequences – for public servants may offer a reshuffled Cabinet fresh opportunities. But health, housing and jobs will remain the dominant issues needing robust handling.
The elections have damaged Fine Gael and weakened the Taoiseach. Previous electoral successes offer no immunity to challenge, as he found in 2010 when the party slipped behind Labour in the opinion polls. On that occasion, the ferocity of Mr Kenny's response to an attempted "heave" surprised his critics and crushed the ambitions of Richard Bruton. Since then, a number of the Taoiseach's most trenchant supporters have lost influence within Government while former critics have moved into contending positions. The existence of a number of challengers on this occasion may, however, facilitate a "divide and conquer" strategy. The stakes are high. Advantage to Mr Kenny.
