Good morning.
Yesterday saw the publication of the summer economic statement, with Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe saying a budget-day package of €2.8 billion - with €700 million available for new spending - will be available to him on October 8th, deal or no-deal Brexit. The Government will, however, allow the State finances swing from a surplus to a deficit if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal.
Our lead on it is here , while analysis from Eoin Burke-Kennedy, who says Brexit is allowing the Government avoid the pressing domestic policy issues of housing and health, is here.
Donohoe, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and others gave heavy signals yesterday that tax cuts will be off the agenda if there is a no-deal Brexit, with Government sources also privately acknowledging the usual €5 welfare increases are also unlikely in such a scenario.
Leading figures on the Government and Fianna Fáil benches said the summer statement figures - particularly the effect running a deficit for the next few years in the event of no deal would have on the national debt - are stark.
Those in Government acknowledged no deal would mean a number of tight years, while some in Fianna Fáil privately suggested it could lead to a series of neutral, or almost neutral budgets, in the years ahead.
Yet some differences were discernible between the confidence-and-supply partners, facing their last budget before the election, during Dáil exchanges on the summer statement last night.
Michael McGrath, the Fianna Fáil finance spokesman, criticised the Minister for committing to the figure of €2.8 billion, saying he is “not sure that it is wise to lock into that budgetary strategy right now”.
“I do not see that it is necessary, as much can change in the coming months,” McGrath said. “I hope the Minister will come back on the amount of resources he will have in play to do anything tangible to support the sectors we all accept will need special supports in the event of a no-deal Brexit.”
It was something of a difference from last year, when McGrath largely agreed with the figures provided by Donohoe in the summer statement, a move that foreshadowed the extension of the confidence-and-supply deal.
The Cork South Central TD yesterday said political stability is needed in the period ahead to pass a budget, and senior figures in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil agree a budget must be passed if the new British prime minister triggers a Brexit crisis in the autumn.
But it was notable that McGrath firmly stated his party’s political philosophy in the Dáil last night.
“Apart from the economic backdrop, which must be accounted for, the other core priority must be protecting our citizens and ensuring that those basic services are in place when they need them,” he said, citing home care and health in particular. “They are under serious strain now.
“The Minister cannot do everything. He cannot promise a €2.3 billion tax cut and deliver on the full capital programme despite the overruns that are there and, at the same time, protect vital public services,” McGrath said.
“Decisions will have to be made against the benchmark, as far as we are concerned, of what are our values, what are our priorities as a country and who are we seeking to protect. For me, this is the key issue.”
This time last year, Varadkar was polling strongly following the passage of the referendum on the Eighth Amendment. and many in his party were itching for a general election. Fianna Fáil, bruised after divisions opened within its ranks during that referendum campaign, wanted to stop one.
A year on, Varadkar has been worn down by government. Fianna Fáil has been buoyed by a successful local, if not European, elections, and a new confidence runs through the party.
Fianna Fáil will not push for an election - Micheál Martin will not do anything to undermine the trust in his party he has spent years painstakingly rebuilding - yet it may push for more of what it wants in the final budget before the election.
Best Reads
Miriam Lord says Paschal Donohoe hailed the automatic stabilisers as he pedals into the unknown.
Martin Wall reports on today's strike by health service support staff.
The Government's attempt to hold the line on pay will not be helped by Danny McConnell's story in the Examiner, which reveals Leo Varadkar has awarded pay rises to judges.
Playbook
The two-day National Economic Dialogue begins down in Dublin Castle.
Dáil
Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan is on oral questions.
Leaders’ Questions is at noon.
There will be expressions of sympathy on the death of Jackie Healy-Rae.
Taoiseach’s Questions precedes statements on last week’s European Council meeting.
Labour has a PMB on carers.
The CervicalCheck Tribunal Bill 2019 is at second stage.
Seanad
The Criminal Justice (Mutual Recognition of Probation Judgments and Decisions) Bill 2018 is at committee and remaining stages.
The Coroners (Amendment) Bill 2018 is at committee stage.
The Perjury and Related Offences Bill 2018 is at report and final stages.
The Industrial Relations Amendment Bill is at committee and remaining stages.
The Criminal Justice (Public Order) (Amendment) Bill 2019 is at second stage.
The Upper House will also have statements on the summer economic statement.
Committees
The Health Committee has a session on oral health with the Department of Health and the HSE, as well as representatives from the Oral Health Policy Academic Reference Group.
The Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government considers the Local Government Rates Bill.
Minister for Transport Shane Ross is before the Transport Committee to discuss accessibility of public transport for people with disabilities.
The Climate Action Committee has a session on urban planning focused on cycling.
European Affairs considers how to strengthen alliances across the EU with Ibec, Ictu and the Irish Universities Association.
Communications, Climate Action and the Environment continues its investigations into the National Broadband Plan.
Garda Commissioner Drew Harris is at the justice committee to discuss Garda reform.
