Good morning.
Almost halfway through the general election campaign, and today is the start of moving week. If there’s going to be a decisive move, it will probably come this week. By the time we get to the beginning of the last week - seven days from now - the choices of most voters will have begun to harden up. So the parties will throw absolutely everything they have at it in the coming days.
Weekend polls confirmed the picture outlined by the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll published last week. Fianna Fáil is nudging ahead of Fine Gael, which has slumped since last year; Sinn Fein is on a steep upward trajectory. The Greens gathering momentum; Labour not. The picture of the political landscape for the first half of the campaign seems pretty solid.
So what now? Fine Gael needs something to change in the second half of the campaign or it is heading for opposition. Now, things usually do change as a campaign progresses; however, they could change in ways that are unfavourable for Fine Gael as well as vice versa. That’s what happened in 2016.
As our lead story outlines today, there is worry, but not yet panic in Fine Gael about the progress of the campaign. The Taoiseach and his ministers will continue with their campaign strategy to emphasise the economic and Brexit messages, while dialling up the warnings about Fianna Fáil principally, and other opposition parties too. But nervous candidates, TDs, and party workers will want to see some sign that it is working pretty soon.
Inside this morning's paper I discuss the Fine Gael state of play in more detail , while Fiach Kelly has a guide to the week ahead - and the crucial staging points.
Elsewhere yesterday, the Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald kept up her pitch for government, accusing the "political establishment" of "desperately reaching for any excuse to exclude Sinn Féin" from government.
Leo Varadkar wasn’t impressed, citing again his concerns about the influence of senior Republicans in Belfast on the political decisions made by the party in Stormont, as he says the cash-for-ash inquiry demonstrated. McDonald pooh-poohed the notion.
Simon Carswell has an explainer about the FF and FG objections to Sinn Féin in government , while I suggest that they are mostly about the question of a united Ireland policy by the Dublin Government.
That argument is unlikely to go away for the remainder of the campaign.
Best reads
Food for thought on our opinion pages this morning. Ever wondered about the parallels between Leo Varadkar and Prince Harry? Anne Harris will explain them for you.
Una Mullally ruminates on the recent rise in the Sinn Féin vote.
Muiris Houston has the questions you should ask canvassers about their plans for the health service.
Conor Pope was out with Extinction Rebellion climate activists while Marie O'Halloran watches as the Social Democrats' great white hope Gary Gannon knocks on doors in Dublin Central.
Our leader pays tribute to Seamus Mallon.
Inside Politics Election Special Podcast
Don't forget to tune in to our daily podcasts for an up to the minute take from the campaign trail.
Election Diary
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar meets the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier at Government Buildings early this morning, though this has nothing to do with the general election, you understand.
Later Mr Varadkar will attend - along with other party leaders - the funeral of Seamus Mallon in Co Armagh before making his way to Galway, via a spot of canvassing in Tyrrelspass, Co Westmeath, for the RTÉ Leaders’ Debate, hosted by Claire Byrne.
The event will feature seven party leaders - eight, if Aontu’s Peadar Toibin goes to the High Court this morning as threatened and gets his way - and so promises to be a bit of a shouting match.
Back in Dublin, Fine Gael will be talking about its plans for education.
The Labour Party will publish proposals for Better Pay and Job Security with Senator Ged Nash. It will, the party says, include a commitment to guarantee everyone the right to be represented by a trade union, a right to flexible working hours, measures to address the gig economy, and chart a path to a living wage.
The Green Party will launch Water Quality Policy at the Martello Tower in Seapoint (bring your togs).
Fianna Fáil will outline the party’s proposals to tackle high insurance costs at the party’s campaign HQ this morning.
The leaders’ debate kicks off after the news on RTÉ One at 9.35pm.
