Is Irish politics about to witness what meteorologists might call a force majeure, one of those rare occurrences that alters the complexion of everything?
Could it happen that the Green Party undergoes a transformation that sees it move from being an unfunded minnow with no national representation, as it was until only 3½ years ago, to the third-largest party in the State?
It will take a big leap, and then some wishful thinking, for that to happen. But the party finds itself at perhaps its strongest position in its existence.
Party leader Eamon Ryan may be relatively modest in his ambition, saying he hopes to win six seats. But recent polls – and a very strong local election in which they won almost 50 seats – have elevated the party’s expectations to the higher altitudes. With double-digit support in urban areas, the party’s own haul could conceivably be in the teens, close enough to Sinn Féin whose support is ebbing.
There are caveats. Back in 2007, opinion polls suggested the Greens were going to make big gains. In the end, they ended up with six seats, the same number they had in the previous Dáil. The party seems to outperform in second-tier elections like local and European elections and then underperform in general elections.
That said, there is no denying it is a rising force right now. The party is in play in every Dublin seat, and is also in contention in Cork, Waterford, Limerick, Galway, Kildare, Carlow-Kilkenny and Wicklow. On a really good day, it could even have a Moosajee Bhamjee moment in an unlikely place (he was the hitherto-unknown psychiatrist who won a seat for Labour in Clare in 1992) with perhaps someone like Saoirse McHugh coming through in Mayo.
Ryan knows the party is on the cusp of something but tries to remain grounded in his assessment: “We are ready, as ready as any party can ever be. We have our candidates selected so we are in good stead on the ground. Our membership has doubled in the past year – we are at 3,000 now. We have a team of councillors bedding in.”
We are ready, as ready as any party can ever be. We have our candidates selected
So when does he sense that team will be put to the test? The delay in Brexit, he says, has been critical. “I think it will be difficult enough to have an election before Christmas. If the UK is having an election, it’s messy for us. I presume we are talking about the spring.”
Emission targets
Ryan refers to the latest national emission figures from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) which show Ireland again failed to meet its EU targets last year.
“My personal sense is, as emissions show, we can’t get Fine Gael out quickly enough.”
Some very obvious findings from the recent Irish Times opinion poll shows there is a high awareness of climate change among voters, and, moreover, voters appear more amenable to measures that are unpalatable.
“We no longer need to stress to people there is a climate crisis. People are aware of that. Our job is to provide practical solutions. Our policies are very solutions-focused and very real.
“We can’t be aspirational. It’s what’s achievable. It’s our focus. What are the real specific changes that would come if a government had a real chance?”
We no longer need to stress to people there is a climate crisis. People are aware of that
So what are the examples of those real policies?
The party has been holding meetings with interested parties for months, seeking suggestions on how its big plans could be put into action. It has been working on a new green deal, which will emphasise that sustainability and conservation can actually work out well economically. It’s also been developing an alternative development plan that would shift the focus on to public transport, walking and cycling, as well as changes in the way people work. In that mix are also discussions about how to change land use, afforestation, farming, energy and housing.
“For example, Fine Gael is now proposing to import fracked gas. That’s not a clever idea. We need to look across the board in everything and I think our job is to present the alternative.”
Coalition prospects
The party had an animated discussion on coalition at its national conference in the summer, with the majority deciding to remain open to the possibility. It is no secret Ryan is one of those who would be keen to go into government, but he is reluctant to talk about it on the basis it would be putting the cart before the horse.
“If we just talk about that and raise that expectation, you are presuming you have electoral support.
“The key thing is this: this comes from the bottom up. If people are willing to vote for us, then they put us in a position to do something.”
What is also evident from the polls is that the Green Party predominantly attracts support in urban areas, specifically from the middle classes. Ryan argues that is no longer the case, that there has been a fundamental shift in the Green movement throughout Europe.
“We see ourselves as representing everyone. It cannot be rural versus urban. It can be something that everybody has a chance to be part of and benefit from.”
Ryan says the party has not been perfect and made mistakes in the past in terms of connecting with rural voters
But if you examine the breakdown of poll figures, the Greens attract the lowest support in rural communities. Ryan says the party has not been perfect and made mistakes in the past in terms of connecting with rural voters. He points to a slew of new candidates from rural areas who would help change perceptions. They include McHugh, Róisín Garvey, Louise Heavin and the soon-to-be senator Pippa Hackett, who is an organic beef farmer in Co Offaly.
So how does he predict the party will do? “To get six TDs you need about 5 per cent of the Irish people to vote for you. Obviously we want to build up a base, and with six minimum you can build up a team to cover every department.
“The more we can get, the stronger our hand will be in any negotiation. I prefer not to talk it up too much because the electorate will have to make that decision.”
