First Minister Peter Robinson is proposing a long-standing solution to the crises that erupt in northern politics – a return to "Big House" politics. It has served Northern Ireland fairly well in the past and probably is the only means of resolving the current impasse.
He yesterday spelled out quite bleakly that if there is not a comprehensive attempt to end the sour and dysfunctional politics in Northern Ireland the inevitable result is the collapse of Stormont.
At previous times of crisis, high-powered negotiations have been held in grand houses such as Lancaster House, Weston Park, Leeds Castle and Hillsborough Castle and it seems that another stately pile may be required to bring the northern parties back to serious negotiation mode.
Robinson himself, in his article in yesterday's Belfast Telegraph, suggested that St Andrews Mark II talks were necessary to dig northern politics out of a big hole.
The original St Andrews negotiations in Scotland took place in a grand hotel there in 2006 rather than in some Blandings Castle-style setting but the same principle applies – the British and Irish governments and the northern parties need to be locked behind four walls for intensivetalks to tackle issues.
Legacy of St Andrews
St Andrews created the conditions for the current manifestation of the Northern Executive, which has survived for more than seven years.
The First Minister focused on how welfare reform is threatening Stormont. Sinn Féin, with the support of the SDLP, has dug in its heels.
The problem is that Westminster is responding by imposing fines that will increase yearly. These annually could be £250 million, according toDUP Minister for Finance Simon Hamilton. In addition, because Northern Ireland is going it alone on welfare, a new separate expensive computer system will be required in the North.
Robinson has estimated that the total cost could be an unsustainable £1 billion annually, which is 10 per cent of the annual £10 billion net block grant paid to Stormont.
Divisive issues
There is no doubting the cost is high and departmental budgets will suffer. But this is bigger than welfare reform. The problem is there are other issues that divide the DUP and Sinn Féin and could bring down Stormont. These include parades, the past and flags; the Irish language; what happens at the Maze site; and allowing the
National Crime Agency
– described as Britain’s FBI – operate in Northern Ireland in the face of Sinn Féin and SDLP opposition.
So what Robinson proposes makes eminent sense. Even Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness agreed Sinn Féin was "open to discussion". He raised the reasonable question, however, of the prospects of such talks succeeding when Robinson wants anti-Belfast Agreement politicians such as Jim Allister and the Orange Order involved.
Suspiciously, he asked: “Is it about a renegotiation of the Good Friday Agreement or the St Andrew’s Agreement? Is it a unionist desire to return to majority rule or an effort to keep Sinn Féin out of decisions?”
At the weekend, Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan told The Irish Times the Irish and British governments believed it was "absolutely essential" the parties devised a "comprehensive" way of breaking the logjam.
London and Dublin would prefer if the northern parties could resolve their own problems but such is the paralysis and bad feeling at Stormont that it seems inevitable the assistance of the two governments will be required. The British government will be more concentrated on Scotland than Northern Ireland for some time, so it could be weeks before such hothouse talks take place.
