Over the past week the Labour Party has decided to recycle an old slogan and give it a new lease of life. Remember "Gilmore for Taoiseach". Well the message now is "Gilmore for European Commissioner".

Minister for the Environment Phil Hogan has been strolling around Leinster House with the relaxed air of a man who will be packing his bags for Europe in the not too distant future.

For some time now the consensus has been that the prized European commissioner's post has been earmarked for Mr Hogan, the Taoiseach's close Fine Gael ally.

However, the Labour Party has begun a below-the-radar but very determined push to make its departing leader the next Irish commissioner, with Gilmore's supporters emphasising that his status and experience could deliver him a more substantive portfolio than Hogan (possibly one of the big economic briefs) when the new commission president – most likely Jean Claude Juncker – chooses his team.

Gilmore himself dropped the slightest of hints yesterday when he said, half-jokingly, that those who said he’d be a good commissioner were right.

Hogan himself has not really shown his hand publicly, but those close to him have begun a push-back to the new threat in recent days, saying he could get the plum agriculture job in Brussels.

Senior role

Senior Labour sources have argued that Gilmore would also get a senior role, and would be a strong candidate for one of the economic posts. But a lot of that is based on very subjective and partisan reasoning.

They also believe he would have more appetite for the fray. “Do I think he wants it? Yes. Do I think he’ll be good? Yes. Do I think he’ll get it? Haven’t a clue,” a source said.

And that’s the rub. There are a few different factors that will come into play when Enda Kenny decides. Labour insists there was no agreement whatsoever on the commissionership being earmarked for Fine Gael.

“After the Cabinet positions were agreed, we got the Attorney General and the super junior, Fine Gael got the Ceann Comhairle and the Chief Whip,” said another source. “But that was as far as it went. There was no discussion or decision on the commissioner job.”

If Labour gets the commissionership there will have to be quid pro quo. Would it be forfeiting a desired ministry in the reshuffle? Or making a big concession to Fine Gael on a policy matter like tax? A lot will depend on the attitude of the new Labour leader, whether or not Gilmore in Brussels will advantage or disadvantage the party in the Coalition.

There’s a perception that the push for Gilmore has come very late in the day, months after Hogan’s name was mentioned. There’s a view among some in Labour he stepped down too early; if the resignation happened now there would be more leverage for Europe. And will the decision wait until after Labour decides its new leader?

Concessions to Labour

And then there’s blow-back within Fine Gael. Kenny is also under pressure from his troops (and not just the young five-a-side contrarians) about too many concessions to Labour on policy and position, with mutterings about Fine Gael losing traction as a result.

It won’t be an easy decision. There will be consequences from whatever choice Kenny makes.