Boris Johnson will set out his 'final' Brexit offer to the EU later today at the Tory conference in Manchester.
The British government will submit its formal proposals to Brussels on how Britain can overcome the backstop dilemma. It also happens to be Johnson's first actual offer. And judging from all the details that have been leaked in advance of it, it is already sounding not worth the paper it is written on. The proposals are, predictably, our lead today.
In characteristic fashion, Johnson will tell the conference it is a “new deal or no deal” and will present his proposal as a “fair and reasonable compromise”.
So what do we know this morning? Well the main ingredients are a proposal for “two borders for four years” and a “Stormont Lock”. After the transition period came to an end, Northern Ireland would stay in the single market for four years but, crucially, not in the customs union.
That would mean that there would be a single market for the whole of Ireland for agri-food and manufactured goods until 2025. It would also mean other goods originating from the North would be subject to customs checks once they crossed the border into the EU.
The second of the two borders would involve agri-foods and industrial goods coming from the mainland UK into Ireland, specifically those coming in via the North. They would be subject to checks to ensure they comply with EU standards.
So these are the two borders, but they would last for only four years. At that stage, the Stormont Lock would come in. A reconvened Assembly and Executive would have power to decide if that arrangement would continue or come to an end. The deal reportedly has the backing of the Democratic Unionist Party.
So is it going to fly? It is doubtful. Without seeing the details, it looks suspiciously like the time-limited backstop proposal from Theresa May that was so roundly rejected by the EU and by Ireland.
This time a Stormont vote might give it a veneer of democratic consent, but given the tribal nature of Northern politics, it is not as simple as that.
The mood music is already poor. Downing Street has been blaming the Irish Government for leaking the earlier “non-paper” on two borders to RTÉ. The EU and Dublin are already making negative sounds about the final offer.
Johnson will tell the Tories the public in Britain are now beginning to think they are being treated as fools. They might not be the only ones. The old reliables will be revisited: technology, number-plate recognition and trusted-trader arrangements aimed at reducing bureaucracy.
Don’t forget the budget . . .
And just in case we are getting totally distracted, there is a small matter of a budget to think about next week. Fiach Kelly has a great insight this morning into one crucial component of Paschal Donohoe's facts on the grounds.
It is that corporation tax receipts will continue to provide a safety net for all that overspending in health and other departments. The bonanza is set to continue, he reports, with receipts this year poised to equal last year’s €10.4 billon haul.
Donohoe will be slow to use the money for current spending, but it does give him a little breathing space in what should be a tight budget dominated by Brexit. All the indications are runaway spending in health has yet to be harnessed. But given the lashing the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council gave the Government earlier this year over its use of these windfall tax receipts, it is unlikely he will use it to plaster over those cracks.
Best reads
Miriam Lord finds Brexit unavoidable in her column this morning. She writes "Dominic Cummings, the brains of the outfit who apparently models himself on great military strategists like Bismarck and the ancient Chinese General Sun Tzu.
Or is it the guiding influence of great nonsense poets like Edward Lear and Spike Milligan? It’s hard to tell.”
In an oped piece, Michael O'Sullivan, formerly of Credit Suisse Private Banking, describes the complete lack of understanding the British establishment has of Northern Ireland.
“Northern Ireland needs a second wind in terms of its socioeconomic development. Irish America can add an important voice of support here. Northern Ireland should not be parked as a political issue but should be cultivated economically and socially.”
Denis Stanton's report on the Tory conference in Manchester.
The Irish Times view on China at 70. We were hoping there would be the classic line of "it's too early to say". But no, our lead writer is not sitting on the fence, criticising restrictions on freedom and "ruthless use of surveillance technology and determined pursuit of Xi's Belt and Road initiative to connect China and Europe by land and sea".
Meanwhile, Eamon Ryan thinks we should be dancing with wolves in Ireland - real live ones.
Playbook
The big event this week of course is the White Paper on finances that will be published on Friday, ahead of next Tuesday’s budget.
Nothing monumental in the Dáil today. Fianna Fáíl has Private Members’ business proposing to further restrict the use of firearms and offensive weapons. Government Business includes statements on the UN Climate Action Summit as well as the Broadcasting (Amendment) Bill 2019.
The Seanad is looking at the Social Welfare Bill 2019.
Simon Harris will be before the Health Committee this morning for his quarterly engagement on health issues. The new director general of the HSE, Paul Reid, will make his first appearance.
The Justice Committee is looking at online harassment.
