It is the last week of the Dáil, and you can sense the giddy mood among TDs as they count down the days to . . . Armageddon.
Yes, no salad days for the Government this summer as it prepares for the very-worst-case scenario that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has been saying for two years was unlikely: a hard Brexit and a hard border.
The lead story in The Irish Times today is about the issue that will dominate the last Cabinet meeting before the Dáil breaks for the summer recess.
Pat Leahy and Denis Staunton report there will be “dire” warnings at Cabinet about the consequences of a no-deal Brexit. Tánaiste Simon Coveney will bring no less than three reports to his Ministerial colleagues setting out the difficult scenarios Ireland will face if there is no-deal.
The main report setting out the risks runs to more than 100 pages.
And a hard border?
These two paragraphs will send a chill down the spine of all who wish to retain an invisible border: “The Government is increasingly concerned about how it can reconcile the twin obligations to maintain an open border on the island while at the same time protecting the single market and customs union if the UK leaves without an agreement.”
Mr Coveney warned: “We can’t allow . . . Northern Ireland effectively to become a back door - if it’s unguarded - into the EU single market and customs union.
“Because if that happens then the Republic of Ireland will essentially get taken out of the single market by default and we can never allow that to happen.”
The Taoiseach said tariffs and customs in the event of a no-deal Brexit would not need Border checks but that checks on food products and animals were a difficulty.
“We’ve made no preparations for infrastructure,” he said.
That all sounds eerily like the “technological solution” pushed by Tory Brexiteers and roundly rejected by the EU and the Irish Government.
The 100-page contingency plan covers “preparations in about 20 areas, including aviation, road haulage, retail, tourism and medicines”. There will also be a memo describing preparations at ports and airports.
“According to sources familiar with its content, the memo will approve the permanent structures at airports and ports, including Dublin and Rosslare Europort,” Pat Leahy and Denis Staunton report.
On the other side of the coin, the chair of the Commons Committee on Northern Ireland, Tory MP Simon Hoare, has warned of a break-up of the UK.
Wake-up call for Varadkar and Cabinet
One of those involved in preparation of the memo for Cabinet has said the stark scenario will be a wake-up call for business and for politicians.
The same could be said of the Government and its leader who have come late to acknowledging the reality that a no-deal Brexit is now the likelier outcome.
While Coveney was always more guarded in his predictions of the outcome of the process, Varadkar continued to express optimism into the autumn that a deal could be reached.
Politicians trade on hope and best possible outcomes, but Varadkar and his Government could be accused of poor judgment in not planning for contingencies for the worst-case situation.
Contrast those pronouncements with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier who visited the Border region last year and was quite pessimistic about the possibility of a deal.
Up until late last autumn, Varadkar continued to accentuate the positive. He said in the Isle of Man that a successful outcome to Brexit negotiations by Christmas were “more likely than not”.
Earlier that summer, at a Fine Gael dinner, he chastised Fianna Fáil and others for “planning for a hard border between Northern Ireland [and] the rest of the island, with new restrictions on trade between us and Britain”.
He continued: “We view the future differently. We’re working to ensure the worst case scenario doesn’t happen.
“We’re not interested in creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, we are not blind to the possibility, however unlikely, that things could go wrong. We know that there may be hard calls in the coming months and decisions and choices we may have to make.”
Ouch. Unlikely has become likely, and the self-fulfilling prophecy now looks like it could come to pass.
Best reads
Fintan O'Toole's column examines the British psyche that led to its Brexit woes.
Derek Scally on lessons Ireland can learn from German politics.
Fiach Kelly reports that an internal Sinn Féin report on its poor performances in the June elections does not blame leadership nor its policies but its communications.
A report on worries about how legislation allowing increases in slot machine stakescould have an adverse effect on problem gamblers.
Patsy McGarry reports on how Minister of State Paul Kehoe and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar got into a tangle over whether the docking of two Navy ships was routine maintenance or was due to staff shortages.
Playbook
Dáil
14.00: Leaders’ Questions.
14.32: Order of Business.
15.02: Taoiseach’s Questions on issues relating to his Department.
15.47: Parliamentary Questions to Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport Shane Ross.
18.05: Legislation for debate comprises the Coroners (Amendment) Bill 2018, and Redress for Women Resident in Certain Institutions (Amendment) Bill 2019.
19.00: Questions-and-answers session on the EU Mercosur Trade Agreement on beef.
21.00: Private Members’ Business (Fianna Fáil): motion criticising the lack of resources for Special Needs Education in the State.
23.00: Dáil adjourns.
Seanad
10.00: Seanad Public Consultation Committee public hearings on “Travellers Towards a more equitable Ireland post-recognition”.
Order of Business.
15.30: Motion regarding Animal Health (Pigs) - Back from committee without debate.
15.30: Legislation to be debated includes the Judicial Council Bill 2017, the Courts (Establishment and Constitution) (Amendment) Bill 2018, the Parole Bill 2018 and the Local Government (Rates) Bill 2018.
There will also be time made available for statements on Defence matters. Plenty to talk about including ships (not) passing in the night.
Committees
12.30: Employment Affairs and Social Protection discusses the Social Welfare Consolidation Act 2005 (Specified Bodies) Regulations 2019 with John Halligan, Minister of State.
13.00: Children and Youth Affairs discusses the impact of homelessness on children with officials from the Department of Housing, the Department of Children and Tusla.
13.30: Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform conducts detailed scrutiny of the No Consent, No Sale Bill 2019 and discusses insurance fraud with senior officers from An Garda Síochána.
14.00: Select Committee on Budgetary Oversight will be briefed on budget management and control in the health sector.
15.00: Communications, Climate Action and Environment will discuss the revelations of a whistleblower in the ESB about safety, as revealed by RTÉ’s Prime Time.
15.00 Public Accounts Committee is unveiling its sixth periodic report.
15.30: Agriculture, Food and the Marine is looking at opportunities and challenges in the forestry sector in the context of the Climate Action Plan. Its packed agenda also includes matters concerning ash dieback affecting woodland owners and recent media reports on abuse of greyhounds.
