The race for Belfast East is one of the mostly closely watched electoral battles ahead of Thursday's Westminster election.
Eight names are on the ballot paper, but it is a straight fight between the incumbent Gavin Robinson of the DUP and new Alliance leader Naomi Long, whom he unseated in 2015.
Alliance has hopes of Paula Bradshaw being elected in Belfast South, but the Belfast East constituency is their best chance of electoral success this week.
In 2010 Ms Long sensationally unseated former DUP leader Peter Robinson by 1,533 votes in a bruising defeat for the party.
Then, in 2015, all of the other unionist parties stood aside to give the DUP a free run and Gavin Robinson, no relation to Peter, won it back by a margin of 2,597 votes in a contest which saw turnout increase from 58.4 per cent to 62.8 per cent.
This time the constituency is being flooded with Alliance canvass teams.
Peter Robinson
The DUP insists the seat is winnable, even without an electoral pact. After criticism for requiring a unionist pact to unseat Ms Long, and what was perceived by many as an ungracious winner’s speech last time, the pressure is on Gavin Robinson to prove he can retain Belfast East.
Interestingly, former first minister Peter Robinson has come out of political retirement, not to be campaign manager for him, but for the DUP’s Belfast South candidate, Emma Little-Pengelly.
The UUP threw its hat in the ring in Belfast East with the little known Hazel Legge, so it is lacking a heavy-hitter to draw votes away from the DUP. The PUP, TUV and UKIP are not on the ballot paper.
The DUP is perhaps right to be confident as, in this year’s and last year’s Assembly elections, its candidates received 2,498 and 2,984 more votes than Alliance candidates.
Brexit
However, how much Brexit impacts on the electorate is one of the big questions. In the EU membership referendum the turnout in Belfast East was 66.5 per cent and leave voters accounted for 51.4 of the vote.
Gavin Robinson says he has been getting “an enjoyable response” on the doors, where he has been delivering a message of providing “a strong unionist voice” at Westminster.
Alliance has been busy distributing its “Change Direction” election literature across the constituency, and Ms Long says there is an opportunity for her party to poll very strongly as they are offering a “different agenda” to the DUP.
"I would be hopeful we are in with a real chance of winning," she said. "Unlike the DUP who have slip-streamed behind the Conservatives and supported a recklessly hard Brexit, I don't believe that is good for the UK, but I particularly don't believe that is good for Northern Ireland. "
History and voting patterns, and other factors including Brexit, constitutional positions, turnout and the big personalities standing in Belfast East make it a difficult constituency to call, but after all the votes are counted, the DUP seem likely to be still standing.
Candidate list:
DUP – Gavin Robinson
Alliance – Naomi Long
NI Conservatives – Sheila Bodel
Green Party – Georgina Milne
Sinn Féin – Mairéad O’Donnell
SDLP – Séamas de Faoite
UUP – Hazel Legge
Independent – Bobby Beck
