Political commentators should be loathe to make predictions because they tend to be as good at it as a flipped coin is at showing heads every time.
That said, the shambles that unveiled in Westminster yesterday was so predictable, so patently obvious, so inevitable, leading everyone to utter the phrase “I told you so”.
Well, the versions of that phrase the British media used this morning were not generous in describing Theresa May's dramatic postponement of Tuesday's House of Commons' vote on the Brexit withdrawal.
"Turkey Brexmas" was the Sun's headline. "The Lady is for Turning" was the Daily Telegraph's version, comparing her unfavourably to Margaret Thatcher.
“We cannot continue to be led through Brexit by a mule flogging a dead horse,” was that paper’s columnist Alison Pearson’s condemnation.
Faced with a crushing defeat in Westminster (with a reported 100 Conservatives set to vote against), Mrs May has begun a whirlwind tour of European capitals in an effort to rescue her withdrawal treaty. The vote is now likely to take place in January, with only two months left to leave the EU.
The big stumbling block, as it has been since December 2017, is the backstop. Tory MPs believe it will keep the UK in an indefinite EU customs union without any prospect of exiting. May must now try to convince Angela Merkel, Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker to allow for such concessions.
But the withdrawal agreement cannot be revisited. Any changes will not be legally binding. And besides, will any concession appease the hardline Brexiteers within her party, or attract enough moderate Labour voters to her cause.
The Irish Times has extensive coverage this morning led by Denis Staunton in London. He sets out the quandary thus in the lead story. Quoting a Government source he writes: "Only a clause to unilaterally withdraw from its provisions would satisfy Mrs May's critics at Westminster, and that a legal guarantee would be difficult to implement without undermining the backstop. "You can't do that and preserve the essential quality of the backstop. I don't see an easy way out."
Abortion Legislation inches its way through Oireachtas
For once, it is Seanad Éireann that is the focus of attention rather than the Lower House. It is even sitting more days than the Dáil this week, which is almost unprecedented.
The reason, of course, is the Regulation of Termination of Pregnancy Bill and the Government’s efforts to get all stages passed, and the Bill written into law, by year’s end. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said it was possible yesterday. Minister for Health Simon Harris, speaking in the Upper House, had no choice but to disagree.
Here is what the Taoiseach had to say: “I am confident that the service will be available in January,” he told reporters. “Obviously there are a number of contingencies. The legislation has yet to go through the Seanad. If it is amended in the Seanad, it will have to go through the Dáil and then, of course, the President always has it within his prerogative to refer it to the Supreme Court.”
It’s a tall order. The Seanad has been beset with the same long list of amendments and the same extended debates. There are a small but very determined group of senators who oppose many – and in some cases, all – of the legislation’s precepts.
As Marie O’Halloran reports: “There were sharp exchanges in the Seanad debate on abortion legislation when Independent Senator Ronan Mullen questioned the truthfulness of the Minister for Health Simon Harris in turn accused the Senator of being “offensive”.
“There was some heckling against Mr Mullen during the debate on terminations in emergency situations.”
But the prospect of abortion services being available by the New Year seems wishful even if the legislation gets through the House. Setting up such services is difficult. The extent of that is revealed by Martin Wall in another important story this morning.
“The Coombe Women & Infants University Hospital has told the Government it will not be ready to provide abortion services from January 1st as planned by the Minster for Health, Simon Harris.”
That’s categoric.
Best Reads
Denis Staunton has a concise analysis on the Theresa May's quandary.
Fiach Kelly writes that the EU and Ireland are now preparing actively for the possibility of a no-deal Brexit.
Fintan O'Toole says that Brexit is a Marxist document – Groucho Marx that is.
The Irish Times editorial gives mild plaudits to May for Monday's decision.
French president Emmanuel Macron has his own difficulties. He made a televised address last night responding to the intensifying "yellow vest" crisis, promising wage and pension increases, as well as a raft of social and welfare concessions. Here is Lara Marlowe's report.
PLAYBOOK
The Cabinet meets this morning under the looming shadow of Brexit. Leo Varadkar will report to Ministerial colleagues on the telephone conversation he had with Theresa May at the weekend, as well as how the Government will respond to British attempts to renegotiate the backstop. Elsewhere, Minister for Transport Shane Ross is proposing a €80 fine and penalty points for those stopped without a driving licence. Here's Fiach Kelly's report.
DÁIL
14.00 Leaders' Questions
15.47 Minister for Rural and Community Development Micheal Ring fields questions
18.05 Irish Film Board (Amendment) Bill 2018. African Development (Bank and Fund) Bill 2018. Health and Social Care Professionals (Amendment) Bill 2018
20.00 Private Members Business. A Fianna Fáíl private members bill on changing the Statute of Limitations
23.30 Dáil adjourns
SEANAD ÉIREANN
10.30 Commencement Matters
11.30 Order of Business
12.45 Finance Bill 2018 – Report and Final Stages
14.15 Health (Regulation of Termination of Pregnancy) Bill 2018 – Resumption on the debate on abortion
COMMITTEES
15.30 Agriculture, Food and the Marine. Ireland's Bovine TB Eradication Programme
16.00 Select Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Health budget and Expenditure Management
18.30 Select Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government: 2018 Supplementary Estimates for Public Services with Eoghan Murphy, Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government
