The gap may have closed slightly but the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll still shows a little daylight remains between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, and Leo Varadkar still remains the leader with the highest satisfaction ratings.
The state of the parties, excluding undecided voters, is: Fine Gael 31 per cent (down three points compared to the last poll in January); Fianna Fáil 26 per cent (up one); Sinn Féin 22 per cent (up three); Labour 5 per cent (up one); Independents/Others 16 per cent (down two).
The core vote for each party is: Fine Gael 24 per cent (down two); Fianna Fáil 21 per cent (up one); Labour 4 per cent (up one); Sinn Féin 18 per cent (up three); Independents/Others 12 per cent (down three).
The figures are all down for Fine Gael, suggesting that surge in popularity evident through the winter might not be maintained. Nonetheless the party will take some consolation from a high satisfaction rate for the Government (40 per cent) and a consistently high satisfaction rating for Leo Varadkar (55 per cent, which is a decline from the 60 per cent of the last one). By contrast Micheál Martin’s rating is 40 per cent, while new Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald debuts at 39 per cent.
Martin has become a professional sceptic about polls, dismissing them much as Charlie Haughey did throughout his career. He can point to polls in the winter before the 2016 election that showed Fine Gael at over 30 per cent and Fianna Fáil below 20 per cent. But that said, the last few polls have shown a consistent pattern of Fine Gael, and especially Varadkar, ahead.
The poll brings good news for Sinn Féin, a three point rise from the last occasion. For the rest, it’s a mixed bag. Labour remain in single digit territory. The smaller parties and Independents have lost ground or are treading water.
The menace for Denis
Oh dear, Denis has found himself in the soup over Independent News and Media. No, not that Denis, the other one, Denis Naughten.
Like all Ministers who have had the Communications brief, Denis Naughten has been super cautious. If Rupert Murdoch announced a takeover plan for every news organisation in the country, it is likely he would kick to Row G (in other words, defer to his officials).
And that’s not criticising him. It’s just following in a long pattern of creating no ripples or waves.
And you can have little doubt that with the proposed takeover of Celtic Media, what Naughten told the PR executive Eoghan Ó Neachtain (ie. that he would follow the advice of his officials) was accurate and consistent.
The key lines in his Dáil statement, as reported by Michael O’Regan and Marie O’Halloran, were:
“This is not inside information but simply a reflection of the legislation itself… I had no inside information to give.”
He also said: “It may have been preferable if the conversation had not taken place, but I was by no means expressing a personal view nor could I do so at that time”.
It may not have been inside information but the Opposition went to town yesterday on the fact of the conversation, which was first reported by Simon Carswell and Mark Paul.
It would be hard to quibble with the arguments cogently made by Micheál Martin, Mary Lou McDonald and Brendan Howlin in the Dáil. Denis Naughten might have been relaying only a factual position but he was doing it two months before it became public. And that information was conveyed to Independent News and Media. Did it give the organisation an advantage? It’s hard to say but certainly it was not to its disadvantage.
And why did he tell Catherine Murphy in the Dáil that the decision had yet to be made, a few weeks after he essentially told Ó Neachtain the gist of his decision?
The pressure is now mounting on Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to take a view, and there's also the question of why the conversation between Ó Neachtain and Naughten was not included on the Lobbying Register.
The reason advanced was that no lobbying had been done, that the request had been simply to ascertain a factual detail. But it’s a tad more nuanced than that, and it will be interesting to see if the Lobbying Regulator, Sherry Perreault, looks more closely at this.
Is Naughten damaged? There is no doubt he will ship some damage. He himself (and the Taoiseach) accepted the conversation should not have taken place. Ó Neachtain is a former Government press secretary and that status gives him easier access. Still, that information should not have been shared. Because, put simply, it was not appropriate to do so.
