After three decades of the Eighth Amendment’s existence, it seems now the critical figure in the abortion referendum will not be eight after all; rather it will be 12.
What is clear from The Irish Times tracker, as well as from more parliamentarians making public their views in the past day or two is the following: Practically all favour a referendum, and a majority favour a repeal of the Eighth Amendment; but there are deep misgivings among members of the two major parties on the proposed 12-week term for unfettered access to termination.
From day one, that has been clear within Fianna Fail. But until yesterday almost half of Fine Gael parliamentarians, including four senior Ministers, were undecided, or had not declared, on the issue.
As our lead and associated reports show, some of those previously undeclared people are now making their views public and expressing unease about the recommendation of the all-party committee.
Tanaiste Simon Coveney supports repeal but has difficulty with the 12-week provision; so reportedly do Michael Creed, Heather Humphreys and Michael Ring, among senior Ministers.
Four juniors have also declared their unease over this issue: Chief whip Joe McHugh, Brendan Griffin, Ciaran Cannon, and Pat Breen.
Here is a report based on contact with dozens of Fine Gael TDs and Senators yesterday.
It is also obvious the vast majority of those who have not disclosed their position have deep misgivings.
However, a minority of those who have yet to make up their minds are giving consideration to supporting the proposal made by the committee - including Fergus O’Dowd (more likely) and Tom Neville.
The 12-week proposal will not formally form part of the referendum, but if the vote is passed it will be the legislation that will be tabled by the legislature. So essentially the referendum is likely to be fought on that proposition.
As has happened on so many previous referendums, views expressed in opinion polls at this stage - four months before polling day - are fluid and unreliable. There is also a large cohort of ‘don’t knows’.
Without being blase about it, support for repealing the Eighth Amendment is almost a given at this stage. The difficulty is over the relatively radical (for Ireland) alternative that has been proposed.
At this early stage, there are indications that it could lead to a very tight outcome indeed.
