POLAND: Poles vote again tomorrow, this time to elect a new president, but a divisive campaign means the vote is expected to go into a second round.
Donald Tusk, head of the liberal Civic Platform (PO), is expected to top the poll but fall short of the majority required for a first-round victory. The resulting run-off may improve the chances of Warsaw mayor Lech Kaczynski of the Law and Justice Party (PiS).
He is expected to finish second tomorrow, with 35 per cent in the last opinion polls, but he could pick up votes from eliminated candidates, making the October 23rd runoff a tight race between the PO and PiS candidates.
The two parties, both splinters of the Solidarity trade union movement, are still trying to form a government two weeks after the general election.
The PiS came from behind in the last days of that campaign to win the election. Afterwards, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, brother of Lech, decided to relinquish his claim to become prime minister.
Polish voters are wary of the idea of the Kaczynski twins, child stars turned politicians, serving simultaneously as president and prime minister.
Presidential candidate Lech Kaczynski (56) has attracted rural, less well-off voters, with a campaign promising to eradicate Poland's rampant corruption and create a presidential-style democracy along French lines.
He has received a boost in recent days thanks to the endorsement of the radical right-wing religious radio station Radio Maryja.
Mr Tusk, a 48-year-old historian and former anti-communist student leader from the northern city of Gdansk, has attracted mostly urban, educated voters by promising continuity with outgoing president Aleskander Kwasniewski. Mr Kwasniewski leaves office this weekend after a decade in office.
Mr Tusk has cranked up the rhetoric in recent days, telling voters that he wanted to lead a moderate, tolerant Poland and suggesting that Mr Kaczynski - rapidly closing the gap in the polls - would make Poland a radical and unreliable partner.
Mr Tusk and Mr Kaczynski have promised to keep up close ties with the US.
Polish support for Washington and the war in Iraq led to tensions with Berlin and Paris, and Poles have neither forgiven nor forgotten French President Jacques Chirac's notorious remark that, in signing a letter of support for the war, Poland had "missed a good opportunity to shut up".
"No one here's afraid of France and everyone thinks it paid off to stand up to the big western players," said Piotr Kaczynski (no relation) of Warsaw's Institute of Public Affairs (ISP).
"But on foreign policy it's about nuances. Tusk is not as arrogant. Kaczynski would be more strict towards Germany and Russia while closer to the US."
Mr Kaczynski has said his first state visit would be to Washington, while Mr Tusk said he would first visit Brussels.
"No politician should force us to choose between Europe and America," said Mr Tusk this week to the Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper.
He favours Turkey's EU accession and has vowed to prioritise closer EU relations with Ukraine.
If elected president, Mr Kaczynski would be likely to moderate his anti-German, anti-Russian and EU-critical tone.
"He has said these things before but would draw back from the populism. That was purely to gain public support," said Mr Kaczynski of the ISP.
Meanwhile, the film which made celebrities of the Kaczynski brothers, the 1962 About the Two Who Would Steal the Moon, has risen to No 3 in the Polish DVD charts.
