Dr Mo Mowlam's unprecedented gamble in holding face-to-face talks with UDA prisoners has ensured the continuation of the talks - although whether the Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) remains in the process still hangs in the balance.
The Northern Secretary's decision to meet senior UDA leaders, including Milltown Cemetery killer Michael Stone, at the Maze yesterday prompted the UDA inmates to allow their political representatives, the Ulster Democratic Party remain in the talks. The decision should enable the British and Irish governments to press ahead with their pledge to inject momentum into the process. The two governments hope to provide draft heads of agreement for Monday's talks, so that the participants can confront crucial issues such as future North-South structures, and a Northern assembly.
The governments' plan to accelerate the talks won encouragement from the Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble yesterday. Without specifically referring to the Maze decision he said that the "general shape of the outcome of the current talks process" should quickly be outlined.
Dr Mowlam went ahead with her visit to the Maze yesterday - where she also briefly met UVF and IRA inmates - in the face of strong criticism from parties as politically opposed as the DUP and the Alliance Party. The Sinn Fein leader, Mr Gerry Adams, welcomed the UDA decision.
The fact that the UDA inmates, despite reservations, agreed to allow their UDP representatives to remain at Stormont will, for the moment, stand as an endorsement of the Northern Secretary's political risk-taking strategy. Had the UDP and the PUP pulled out, the talks effectively would have been rendered unworkable.
Under the rule of "sufficient consensus" the UUP must have the support of at least one of the loyalist parties to ensure that motions can be passed.
Now that the UDP is remaining at Stormont, the talks can proceed under the existing rules which guarantee that any decisions must have the assent of a majority of the nationalist and the unionist parties.
The Maze decision will also renew a degree of confidence in the state of the UDA ceasefire. However, the PUP's continuation in the talks, and the stability of the UVF ceasefire is much more problematic.
According to a senior loyalist source, the Irish Government was informed as far back as October that the UVF was reconsidering its ceasefire.
Through an intermediary the UVF complained that the British and Irish governments were following a Sinn Fein agenda, he said. The source said the UVF was indifferent to the PUP remaining in the process, and that the paramilitary group separately would follow its own counsel.
Internal UVF pressure, including some poaching of members by the LVF, is understood to be placing strains on the paramilitary group.
The PUP's executive is due to meet tomorrow to take its decision. Somewhat ominously, party representatives were keeping a low profile yesterday, and refusing media requests for comments.
The British and Irish governments are hoping Dr Mowlam's meeting with UVF inmates yesterday, and the direct efforts on Wednesday of the Minister for Foreign Affairs Mr Andrews to reassure the PUP of the Government's even-handedness, would help convince the PUP to remain at Stormont, and the UVF maintain its ceasefire.
Between now and Sunday's meeting the two governments may engage in behind-the-scenes efforts to persuade the PUP to remain in the talks.
