MONTENEGRO: Montenegro votes tomorrow on whether to become the final former Yugoslav republic to break free from Belgrade, a move that supporters say will bring EU membership closer, but which opponents call the doomed folly of a corrupt elite.
Polls suggest the pro-independence camp led by Montenegro's premier may claim a narrow victory, but the republic's large Serb minority insists the unwieldy union of Serbia-Montenegro will still exist come Monday.
From across former Yugoslavia, Europe and even the US, Montenegrins have travelled home this week, where independence supporters have been flying the republic's traditional red banner emblazoned with a gold eagle.
They say a Yes vote would finally restore the sovereignty lost in 1918 when Montenegro was folded into the Belgrade-dominated Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes, a union that Tito transformed into communist Yugoslavia after 1945.
They also insist that Serbia's failure to catch war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic, its fractious talks with the international community over the future of Kosovo, and its years of war and isolation under Slobodan Milosevic, have hampered Montenegro's efforts to move towards the EU and Nato.
Leaders of the country's Serb minority counter, however, that Montenegro's 650,000 residents cannot hope to be better off without Serbia's eight million people, and claim that the prime minister, Milo Djukanovic, and friends seek independence for personal gain, in a republic where officials have often been accused of making fortunes from smuggling.
"The time has come," Mr Djukanovic told a cheering crowd of 50,000 supporters this week. "After 88 years, Montenegro is once again knocking at the door of history, ready to regain its statehood. By becoming independent, we'll be the ones to decide on our fate," he said.
"We will no longer be dependent on Serbia's government and its co-operation with [ the UN tribunal in] The Hague. Our independence will result in a quicker road to the European Union." After backing Mr Milosevic's military campaigns in Croatia and Bosnia in the early 1990s, Mr Djukanovic moved away from the Serb president and, in 1999, Montenegro tacitly supported Nato bombing to drive Belgrade's forces from Kosovo.
Subsequent ties have been strained between the two republics, and Montenegro reluctantly agreed to an EU-backed "state union of Serbia and Montenegro" in 2003, on condition that it could hold a referendum on independence after three years.
"Montenegro will be a home for all its citizens, both those for and against independence," Mr Djukanovic said, calling for calm during the referendum and warning Belgrade not to incite violence among Montenegro's many disillusioned Serbs.
Tension has grown for months around the vote, and even found release in a competition to decide who would represent Serbia-Montenegro at tonight's Eurovision Song Contest.
The Belgrade crowd was incensed when a Montenegrin band won the contest, and Serb judges accused their counterparts from Montenegro of biased voting. After days of bitter wrangling the idea of a joint Eurovision entry was scrapped.
Montenegrin president Momir Bulatovic has promised a sanguine response from Serbs, however, to the referendum result. "We would shake hands, and I would congratulate them on their victory, because only such behaviour will help patch up Montenegro's internal divisions," he said.
"If we were to go down the path of instability, it would be a catastrophe for Montenegro." But he also insisted he was confident of victory. "We are certain of 200,000 votes, which will be enough to pave the way for our triumph," Mr Bulatovic said. "We are certain that the union with Serbia will live on."
